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Let's look at 2020 rookie WR that fit into this data pool of 1st/2nd round pick and height 6'0-6'2:
Justin Jefferson
CeeDee Lamb
Jerry Jeudy
Laviska Shenault
Van Jefferson
JJ and Lamb fit all 8 of the criteria to a T and they hit in year 1. Let's check out the other 3 guys:
Justin Jefferson
CeeDee Lamb
Jerry Jeudy
Laviska Shenault
Van Jefferson
JJ and Lamb fit all 8 of the criteria to a T and they hit in year 1. Let's check out the other 3 guys:
Van Jefferson
This one is quick and easy as Van Jefferson had a lack luster career in college between Ole Miss and UF. He really does not hit much of our criteria and didn't break out until he was 22. All he comes through on are BMI and 40 time presumed to be under 4.6.
This one is quick and easy as Van Jefferson had a lack luster career in college between Ole Miss and UF. He really does not hit much of our criteria and didn't break out until he was 22. All he comes through on are BMI and 40 time presumed to be under 4.6.
Laviska Shenault
He checks off NEARLY all the boxes to be in the 80% tier. He checks off every box except for the Yards Dominator rating he has 22.2% and 23.5% is needed. Not a gap to be overly concerned with. If we expand our parameters for him, we get down to a 77% hit. cont..
He checks off NEARLY all the boxes to be in the 80% tier. He checks off every box except for the Yards Dominator rating he has 22.2% and 23.5% is needed. Not a gap to be overly concerned with. If we expand our parameters for him, we get down to a 77% hit. cont..
2 ends of the spectrum on a comp for Shenault: AJ Brown at the high end. Difference is AJ Brown hands. On the low end, Laquon Treadwell. I know massive gap here but that is sort of the point. 2 others: Juju and Hakeem Nicks. Laviska is a guy I would buy even w/ the Lawrence tax.
Jerry Jeudy
He was a highly contested player between film and analytics heading into 2020 rookie drafts. He did not pass the necessary thresholds for College DOM (26.1%) or Yd DOM (20.8%). He barely even made the minimum for BMI at 25.46. Jeudy is a no for my model. cont..
He was a highly contested player between film and analytics heading into 2020 rookie drafts. He did not pass the necessary thresholds for College DOM (26.1%) or Yd DOM (20.8%). He barely even made the minimum for BMI at 25.46. Jeudy is a no for my model. cont..
If we expand my data for Jeudy, he comes in as roughly a 60% proposition to hit. Of course, if he does end up hitting, he would find himself as an anomaly alongside Anquan Boldin. My best comparison for Jerry Jeudy is Josh Doctson. (spoiler: thats not good)
Conclusion:
Van Jefferson- Sell - Maybe coming off the playoff game you can get something of value.
Laviska Shenault- Buy - of course going to be pricey with the hype surrounding Trevor Lawrence.
Jerry Jeudy- Dealers Choice -my preference, find the biggest Jeudy fan and sell.
Van Jefferson- Sell - Maybe coming off the playoff game you can get something of value.
Laviska Shenault- Buy - of course going to be pricey with the hype surrounding Trevor Lawrence.
Jerry Jeudy- Dealers Choice -my preference, find the biggest Jeudy fan and sell.
