For Israel an unfriendly or “cold”;US administration like Obama’s or probably Biden’s one has some significant positives these days (it was not so when Israel was much weaker as in the 1950s).
First of all, Israel never makes concessions demanded by an unfriendly US President
while it is often weak to a friendly one. The reason is simple - the Israeli public does not want Israeli government to quarrel with a friendly US government, but it rallies around it when it feels pressure from an unfriendly one. Thus Bush was able to extract great and very
damaging concessions from Israel (especially the disastrous withdrawal from Gaza in 2005) while Netanyahu did not yield an inch to Obama in spite of 8 years of continual hostile pressure. All of that got Obama exactly zilch. That alone should have made those who insist on
deluding themselves that Israel is some kind of American puppet to their senses. This view is quite common both among right & left wing antisemites as well as among some people who are not or don’t consider themselves antisemites but completely fail to understand both the
strength of Israel and the nature of Israel’s relationship with the US. But they never come to their senses because even the failure of a genuinely hostile US President like Obama to force Israel to surrender its vital interests they explain by the influence of “the Jewish lobby”
The fact that the majority of US Jews vote for anti-Israel presidents like Obama and against pro-Israel ones such as Reagan, Bush, Trump never changes their “reasoning”: it’s the all powerful Jewish lobby that makes America support Israel even when it is not supporting it.
So Trump, once he was perceived as very friendly by the Israeli population could have done much mire damage by demanding significant concessions to the uncompromising “Palestinian” regime. Of course Abbas made the usual mistake of rejecting all approaches from Trump, except
near the end of the Trump administration. Had he at least pretended a readiness for compromise, Israel might have found itself under serious pressure because after what Trump had done for Israel, an outright refusal would have been out of the question. Now there is again a US
administration that the Israeli public distrusts (less so Biden personally but that is because being so old, people still remember him from the times when the Democratic Party was the pro-Israel party in the USA) Israel is unlikely to agree to any concessions that involve risk.
And the very strong position of the GOP in Congress plus the fact that there is a still a significant minority of Democrats concerned with Israel’s security, makes it very unlikely that Biden will try to apply pressure and risk embarrassing failure.
The biggest problem for Israel would be if Biden reduced cooperation in the area of intelligence, especially of course against Iran. Indeed, that may well be the main aim of Iranian diplomacy now - especially after the recent huge blows Iran suffered due to what is assumed to
have been joint US-Israel operations. But Biden may be reluctant to do that, firstly because this cooperation is not simply one directional and secondly because it probably restrains Israel from taking much more radical steps to deal with the Iranian threat. In fact, if
Carter-like hesitancy and vacillation is going again to become a characteristic of the new administration, Israel’s military action against Iran will become more probable than ever.
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