Thread by @DynastyZoltanFF, I just completed my fourth and final pre-rookie draft startup. Here's a [...]

I just completed my fourth and final pre-rookie draft startup.
Here's a quick thread on my thought process and takeaways from these drafts - focusing more on overall thoughts than individual decisions.
All SF TEPrem

#TheOfficeDraft #HamiltonDraft #FullTiltDraft #IdiotBoxDraft

Here are my four teams. You can see I value 2021 rookie picks and extra future rookie picks far more than my competitions. 2021 rookie slots are massively undervalued in these startups. Rookie hype has yet to hit its peak.

Additionally, people generally think, “Ok, at #5, TLaw, Fields, ETN, Harris will be gone, so I’ll get Chase or Pitts.” That’s bad thinking. Landing spots lift up non-studs more than they hurt studs. Last year at this time, you never thought you’d get Swift at #6 or 7...

then CEH went to KC, lifting all those pick’s values. This is especially true this year, with 5+ potential 1st round QB’s. After what happened with Herbert last year, people aren’t going to let these QBs slip out of the top 15 picks, lifting up the value of all those picks.

I also attacked future rookie picks – hard. Most people build for a “1-3 year window”, and forget that future picks can be used as trade capital, within that window. Additionally, (almost) everyone thinks they have a good team after the startup, and mostly value their 1's ...

at their lowest outcome (1.06-1.12), and ignore upside of a top 3 pick. If I trade a 9th round startup (Reagor value) for a future 1, the downside is a late 1 (Reagor value), while upside is a stud QB1 or RB1. Trade for upside when owners underrate their own team’s downside!

Positionally, I focus mostly on WR and TE. Young TE’s are likely to gain/maintain value even in the face of down seasons, as they’re not expected to produce until age 25-27. WR’s are the cornerstone of a dynasty team, and have the least potential value loss by the NFL draft ...

and will hold value until next offseason (given their aging curve). Why would I draft David Montgomery, who I like, over Terry Mclaurin? How could Montgomery’s value possibly go up this offseason? They could draft another RB. Is it unlikely? Maybe...

But if CHI drafts a RB, his value is in the crapper. If WFT drafts a WR, Mclaurin’s is neutral/up, and if they draft a QB, it shoots up. Use the uncertainty of the NFL draft to your advantage!

I’ll get into this more in a future thread, but I made a total of 64 trades across these drafts. I gave up the higher startup pick (traded back) in 53 (83%) of these trades. Last year, it was probably closer to 95%, so I achieved my goal of being more aggressive trading up...

I use tier-based drafting to make all my trades, and will put out a longer thread on this concept/strategy later.

Finally, let’s look at the players I have multiple of, “my guys”. Notice I focused a lot on high upside RB’s for cheap (Mcfarland, Mattison), undervalued upside WR’s (Preston Williams, Gabriel Davis, Jalen Guyton, Chad Hansen), and specific picks...

Pick 3/4 will likely be the top RBs, depending on landing spot. If a RB gets a great spot, that pick increases in value. Picks 36, 10, and 11 have outsized value, because they’re still considered 3rd and 1st rounders. Finally, #AJBrownWR1, #IrvSmithSZN.

These drafts were great mostly due to my fellow owners. Follow them all!

#IdiotBoxDraft owners:
@Derrty1187 @DynastyJacobian @DynastyJake @TeachC3 @TheDynastyLefty @FF_RTDB @Dynasty_DadFF @PhantasyFFkyra @DynastyChrisS @AJ_Stricklin88 @mastapj

#TheOfficeDraft owners:
@Matt2FrostyFF @DynastyJake @mediocracya @ThomasCP518 @stephiesmallls @JeremyLayt0n @DynastyJacobian @FF_RTDB @PopesFFH @FFParks

#FullTiltDynastyInvitational owners:
@FF_ImBq @BigBillyFF @FF_BDonley @tom_lie92 @Matt2FrostyFF @kieranhall21 @FF_RTDB @Marcel_BFF

#HamiltonDraft owners:
@DynastyBigz @Philly70387 @F1__17 @tommymcthenia @DynastyJacobian @GridironGreek @DynastySweat @tylerfreese @PopesFFH @JmoneyJarrett @JMoeller05

@TradingTableFF @MyFantasyLeague

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