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As we show in our testing data, many countries in Africa do not test widely.
I think this could mean that the COVID death toll on the African continent is substantially higher than the published figures suggest.
A short thread.
I think this could mean that the COVID death toll on the African continent is substantially higher than the published figures suggest.
A short thread.
This recent, not-yet reviewed study measures the undercount of COVID deaths by conducting post-mortem PCRs in Lusaka, Zambia.
• The virus was detected in 19%(!) of deaths (70 people)
• Of these deaths only 8.5% were tested for COVID before death
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.22.20248327v1
• The virus was detected in 19%(!) of deaths (70 people)
• Of these deaths only 8.5% were tested for COVID before death
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.22.20248327v1
This is a recent, not-yet reviewed study on Khartoum, Sudan.
Up to September last year they estimate that only 2% of deaths due to COVID-19 were reported in official reported mortality numbers.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-39-sudan/
Up to September last year they estimate that only 2% of deaths due to COVID-19 were reported in official reported mortality numbers.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-39-sudan/
It is also the case that some high-profile people died of COVID in Africa.
The Foreign Minister and the Agriculture Minister of Zimbabwe died of COVID. Malawi's local government minister and transport minister died from it last week.
And the Prime Minister of Eswatini earlier.
The Foreign Minister and the Agriculture Minister of Zimbabwe died of COVID. Malawi's local government minister and transport minister died from it last week.
And the Prime Minister of Eswatini earlier.
These high-profile deaths aren’t proof of anything.
But it is worth noting as it is consistent with the possibility that the virus does cause a significant death toll, but it is not widely noticed as only few (better off people) are getting tested. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55731440
But it is worth noting as it is consistent with the possibility that the virus does cause a significant death toll, but it is not widely noticed as only few (better off people) are getting tested. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55731440
We are bringing together the data on testing here https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?tab=map&zoomToSelection=true&country=DZA~AGO~BEN~BWA~BFA~BDI~CMR~CPV~CAF~TCD~COM~COG~CIV~COD~DJI~EGY~GNQ~ERI~SWZ~ETH~GAB~GMB~GHA~GIN~GNB~KEN~LSO~LBR~LBY~MDG~MWI~MLI~MRT~MUS~MAR~MOZ~NAM~NER~NGA~RWA~STP~SEN~SYC~SLE~SOM~ZAF~SSD~SDN~TGO~TUN~UGA~ZMB~ZWE~USA~AUS®ion=World&testsMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&colorScale=continents&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=total_cases&pickerSort=desc
The chart below is a snapshot of the current situation – several African countries in comparison with the US and Australia.
The chart below is a snapshot of the current situation – several African countries in comparison with the US and Australia.
The strongest argument against it might be the lack of overburdened healthcare providers.
A key limitation is the lack of CRVS data in many countries.
A key limitation is the lack of CRVS data in many countries.
Several are suggesting to look at excess deaths.
That's mostly only possible in richer countries.
It requires good death records for the last year *and the years before*.
But the death registration in vital statistics is often very incomplete in many poorer countries.
That's mostly only possible in richer countries.
It requires good death records for the last year *and the years before*.
But the death registration in vital statistics is often very incomplete in many poorer countries.
