We're short $PLUG. Report at http://kerr.co/plug2 . We discuss with @grizzlemedia at 1:30 at . Plug isn't a way to bet on the overhyped “hydrogen economy”; it’s just a /r/wallstreetbets roach motel where your fellow travelers probably failed HS chemistry
Valued at an absurd $40b, PLUG is a forklift power-source maker that makes the worst forklift power sources in the market. The stock has become a beneficiary of the hopes, dreams, and delusions of the green hydrogen energy movement, but the "Hydrogen Economy" is a mirage (2/9)
The world will *never* meaningfully use "green" hydrogen for energy. It's too expensive and inefficient to make, store, transport, and use. Just ask @elonmusk: . Li-batteries are better in nearly all use cases & their superiority grows each year (3/9)
There's no S-curve for hydrogen to climb to compete with solar- and wind-powered electricity & batteries. The laws of physics mean that hydrogen will *never* make sense in comparison. Widescale use of the electrolyzers and fuel cells made by PLUG is a delusional fantasy. (4/9)
$PLUG's sales come from fuel cells & refueling infrastructure for forklifts, yet in a preview of H2's futility, Li-batteries conquered ~20% of the mkt in just 3 yrs vs FCs at <2%! There's no economic case for H2 versus Li-batteries, even in the one niche Plug is focused on. (5/9)
YET PLUG IS TRADING AT $40BN!! WTF! If you want to rebel against @elonmusk (and every veteran of the renewable space) and play hydrogen roulette, there’s $BLDP at $10bn and $FCEL at $6bn. Both are also massively overvalued, but they’re deep value stocks compared to $PLUG (6/9)
Meanwhile, >70% of forklift revenue is from just 2 customers: Amazon and Walmart, who are incentivized to buy Plug equipment in return for cheap $PLUG warrants, the value of which is now $5.5B. Nice payoff for buttressing Plug’s efforts to pretend it has a viable business. (7/9)
Finally, Plug's recent deals with SK Group & Renault have propelled shares recently. But these deals emerge from the inherent weaknesses of SK, a conglomerate in a country reliant on others for fossil fuels, and Renault, which is playing catch-up in EVs. (8/9)
The rosy prospect of a meaningful hydrogen energy ecosystem embedded in $PLUG's valuation is entirely divorced from a reality in which Plug really just sells niche fuel cells to customers indirectly compensated for buying them. $PLUG isn’t worth $1b, let alone $40b (9/9)
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