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Yesterday, @MichiganHHS issued guidance on university testing strategies for COVID-19.
Neither @Umich and @MSU’s testing strategies are in compliance with that guidance. That’s a big problem.
A thread. https://www.michigan.gov/documents/coronavirus/2021.01.19_Higher_Education_Testing_Guidance_713346_7.pdf
Neither @Umich and @MSU’s testing strategies are in compliance with that guidance. That’s a big problem.
A thread. https://www.michigan.gov/documents/coronavirus/2021.01.19_Higher_Education_Testing_Guidance_713346_7.pdf
College campuses have been hotbeds of infection, and though young people aren’t at much risk themselves, COVID-19 deaths in counties with universities have been higher than counties without them. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/12/us/covid-colleges-nursing-homes.html
COVID will tear through college campuses even faster once the more B.1.1.7 variant becomes the dominant strain, which the CDC anticipates will happen in March. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm?s_cid=mm7003e2_e#F1_down
The challenge is that students are often asymptomatic or lightly symptomatic when they get COVID. So the key, as I said back in August, is identifying those contagious students and isolating them. https://twitter.com/nicholas_bagley/status/1296434329795600386
The trouble is that most of the spread doesn’t come from on-campus activities. Instead, according to the Washtenaw public health department, viral spread “at or near the Ann Arbor campus is driven by social gatherings.”
Parties, basically.
https://www.washtenaw.org/DocumentCenter/View/18386/Order---Stay-in-place-Order---Final-Oct-20?bidId=
Parties, basically.
https://www.washtenaw.org/DocumentCenter/View/18386/Order---Stay-in-place-Order---Final-Oct-20?bidId=
So what did successful Big 10 universities do last semester? They tested the hell out of their *entire* student body. Indiana University and University of Illinois, for example, rolled out mandatory testing from the get-go at scale. https://covid.iu.edu/health-and-safety/mitigation-testing.html
They caught a lot of cases early, as you’d expect. By mid-semester, however, they were registering few cases despite testing everyone on a weekly basis. https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-19-at-big-ten-conference-schools/?fbclid=IwAR3do4Vu66XaY16ayfBdUw28f6ev2ZHmmkZt7eDp0Aujo9cKHIGLazLB1ec
In contrast, here at @UMich, surveillance testing was anemic and symptomatic testing was a hassle. Our cases got out of control, leading to a stay-at-home order from the local health department. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/21/us/university-michigan-stay-in-place-order-testing.html
The lesson is that frequent, rapid surveillance testing of the student body is key. That’s what @MichiganHHS guidance says, anyhow. https://www.michigan.gov/documents/coronavirus/2021.01.19_Higher_Education_Testing_Guidance_713346_7.pdf
This semester, @UMich and @MSU have massively improved their testing strategies. They’re doing mandatory weekly testing of undergraduates who live on campus or come to campus for classes or activities. https://campusblueprint.umich.edu/winter-term-plan/
That’s good! Great, even! It's a vast improvement.
But there’s a problem with these plans. If most spread isn’t happening on campus, why link your strategy to those students who happen to come to campus?
But there’s a problem with these plans. If most spread isn’t happening on campus, why link your strategy to those students who happen to come to campus?
Two out of three students at @UMich and @MSU don’t live in student housing but do live near to campus. And lots of them this winter/spring will take all their classes over Zoom. They won't be subject to mandatory testing.
Think here about fraternity and sorority houses, which have been problem spots at campus across the country. So long as the students who live there stream their classes, they can party all they want without ever getting tested. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7001a5.htm
If your surveillance strategy allows fraternities and sororities to escape surveillance, something’s gone wrong.
Other schools get it. @UMich and @MSU are out of step with a bunch of other Big 10 universities that will require weekly testing of ALL students who live on or near to campus.
Yes, all! Here’s a handy comparison chart I pulled together that makes the point really clear.
https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/comparison-chart-on-university-testing-for-2021.pdf
https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/comparison-chart-on-university-testing-for-2021.pdf
For an example, here’s Ohio State’s testing strategy. https://safeandhealthy.osu.edu/information/faculty-and-staff/testing/student-testing-program
Why are @UMich and @MSU doing less than our peer schools and less than what @MDHHS recommends?
I’m honestly not sure. Maybe they haven’t yet grappled with how B.1.1.7 will make this semester considerably more dangerous than last semester.
I’m honestly not sure. Maybe they haven’t yet grappled with how B.1.1.7 will make this semester considerably more dangerous than last semester.
And to be fair, smaller universities in Michigan are doing a helluva lot less. I'm glad to see @UMich and @michiganstateu stepping up the pace of testing.
Whatever the reason, I fear that the surveillance strategy that @UMich and @michiganstateu will be too porous to identify and isolate contagious students.
Here’s hoping that they reconsider in light of the state guidance. /fin
Here’s hoping that they reconsider in light of the state guidance. /fin
