Just been talking to someone about long term effects of Brexit and it got me thinking about all these industries that are at a standstill at the moment, in shock over the new red tape.

/1

While it’s true that many industries are at a standstill and are struggling to export now, that’s just the beginning.

/2

Border issues will eventually get sorted. IT systems will work (more or less) and we’ll get the hang of these new formalities.

And at that point, many companies will realise that the extra red tape and these extra costs are not going away.

/3

And while exporting will be doable and won’t take as long as it does now it will never be seamless again.

/4

I reckon that many companies will find it difficult to continue to export – particularly the ones with low margins.

Doesn't mean that they will all go out of business.

/5

But things will need to change. Supply chains will shift, companies will need to restructure. Some business models will no longer be possible (i.e. distribution).

/6

And change is expensive.

It's very hard to generalise, it will be very company-specific. Some (hopefully many) will be able to adapt quickly and thrive. But others, smaller, less agile and flexible...

/7

But basically, I think that's where the big story is - who will survive this in the long term.

/end