Read on Twitter
As Donald Trump prepares to bow out this morning, how has the Pakistan-U.S. relationship fared these past four years? A 
on the Trump White House's duelling messaging on Pakistan, but also some milestones.
on the Trump White House's duelling messaging on Pakistan, but also some milestones.
Almost seven months after winning office, the Trump administration announced an expansive new South Asia strategy (retaining a focus on military power including a troop surge in Afghanistan). https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/1284964/president-unveils-new-afghanistan-south-asia-strategy/
For Islamabad, the new strategy was emblematic of a growing expectations-gap as well as Americaâs âshifting goalpostsâ/made worse by Trump frequently excoriating Pakistan in public. https://www.rferl.org/a/trump-pakistan-osama/29607940.html
The new administrationâs tone was distinctly at odds with the language Trump used to greet Nawaz Sharif shortly after the 2016 U.S. election (Islamabad and Washington released different transcripts, evoking mixed reactions in both countries) https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-38165878
As part of his South Asia plan, Trump controversially signalled to India to do more in Afghanistan, triggering disquiet/unease in Islamabad. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/22/world/asia/pakistan-trump-afghanistan-india.html
Even as NATO Sec Gen Jens Stoltenberg insisted that Pakistan not see the new US strategy as an attempt to isolate it- https://www.dawn.com/news/1360974
To make things worse, in 2018 the U.S. announced it was suspending $900 million in security assistance to Pakistan (affecting primarily Foreign Military Financing and the Coalition Support Fund): https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-pakistan-aid/u-s-suspends-at-least-900-million-in-security-aid-to-pakistan-idUSKBN1ET2DX
Earlier that year, Trump took to Twitter to lash out at Islamabad for lies and deceit/warning Pakistan that specific actions would be taken against it. Pakistan dismissed the Tweet as âincomprehensibleâ: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/02/world/asia/pakistan-trump-tweet.html
For observers in Islamabad, the tweet underscored the unpredictability of President Trump when it came to foreign policy. Earlier Trump had called Pakistan a âvalued partnerâ before castigating it for âharbouring criminals and terroristsâ https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-strategy-afghanistan-south-asia/
In the fall of 2018, newly-elected Imran Khan shot back at the allegations out of Washington/as part of a broader attempt by Islamabad to set the record straight on which country had paid more to defeat terrorism. https://twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI/status/1064482777054220289?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1064482777054220289%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2Fworld-us-canada-49032495
In contrast to the earlier Trump years, 2019 saw an unmistakable steadying of the relationship, largely on the backs of an official visit by Imran Khan to Washington in a push to mend relations. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49032495
The July meeting provided a much-needed shot in the arm to the relationship, a view echoed by Trumpâs allies on Capitol Hill in contrast to the pronounced anti-Pakistan rhetoric of recent years: https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/1153311185514766337?s=20
Of particular significance was Trumpâs unanticipated offer a mediation on Kashmir, adding that Modi had âaskedâ for it; prompting a swift rejection by New Delhi. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/7/22/trump-says-modi-asked-for-us-mediation-on-kashmir-india-denies
Shortly after August 5, Imran Khan and Trump met once again, this time on the sidelines of the UNGA. For the second time in two months, Trump reiterated his readiness to mediate on Kashmir. https://www.dw.com/en/convincing-trump-on-kashmir-pakistani-pm-khans-toughest-diplomatic-test/a-50548589
The Kashmir offer led many in Islamabad to speculate the Pakistan-U.S. relationship was on a surer footing. That summer the U.S. designated the separatist BLA as terrorist group, coinciding with the targeting of TTP commanders in Afghanistan. https://www.rferl.org/a/us-designates-pakistan-s-balochistan-liberation-army-as-terrorist-group/30034730.html
On Afghanistan too, a February 2020 deal between the Taliban and the U.S. led to a slew of positive messaging from many U.S. officials, including Zalmay Khalilzad, towards Pakistan. The relationship seemed to be doing better. https://www.voanews.com/south-central-asia/us-hails-pakistans-role-advancing-afghan-peace-process
But Pakistanâs relationship with China continued to rancour high-level discussions. In early 2020, Alice Wells delivered a stinging critique of CPEC, leading to a rejoinder by the Chinese embassy in Pakistan and souring the mood in Islamabad. https://www.dawn.com/news/1529890/china-rejects-us-diplomat-wells-negative-propaganda-against-cpec
Going forward, what can Pakistan expect from a Biden administration? There's been a lot of sensible analysis on this already. The Pak-U.S. relationship has rarely been an easy ride, even at the best of times, but expect...
1) Less unpredictability, 2) hopefully, fewer exogenous interruptions, 3) a relationship more unambiguously circumscribed by structural issues: Afghanistan, Sino-U.S. tensions, a largely domestic U.S. agenda...
...with the tone & content of the confirmation hearings of incoming Secretary of State Blinken/Secretary of Defence Austin suggesting more continuity than discontinuity for now. At least in largely macro terms. https://www.dawn.com/news/1602541
