At his confirmation hearing, Sec Def nominee Austin assessed al-Qaeda's current & future threat. Three key takeaways: 1) there is a "dedicated network of al-Qaeda and its associated forces" 2) al-Qaeda's local focus doesn't mean it has taken "eye off attacking the U.S. homeland"

3) "In the long-term, al-Qaeda likely represents the greater and more enduring threat to the United States due to the group’s strategic adaptability and trend of decentralization"

I note that this is a different assessment of al-Qaida and its future than what his immediate predecessor offered back in September: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/09/10/christopher-miller-9-11-anniversary-end-of-war-on-al-qaeda/

It is much closer to what @ColinPClarke and I argued in @ForeignAffairs recently: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2020-09-09/al-qaedas-franchise-reboot