Blinken: adding Georgia to NATO would deter Russia, as Russia has attacked non-NATO countries but not NATO countries.

1/Perhaps. But a hell of a risk to run. Assuming that continued alliance enlargment up to an adversary's borders will make it more peaceable, not less.

2/Even if did deter Russia from direct aggression, it would liekly not deter it from other forms of retaliation. Either in Georgia, through shadow/proxy/"grey zone" methods, or elsewhere, in interference and atrocity. Forseeable.

3/Typically, there is an interval between a decision for membership and joining. This could also be destabilising, creating a potential window for Russia to strike. Akin to gap between, say, Japan's decision to go for the bomb and its sprint to get there, while China looks on.

4/And in the bigger picture, it raises the problem of priorities. Further NATO enlargement makes hard-headed cooperation or detente harder. Maybe that's accepted. But is the Biden administration content to compete on many fronts, when it is not short of things to do?

5/Containing China and Russia, and driving them further together, while also trying to disarm North Korea, maintain coercive diplomacy with Iran, agitate for regime change in Venezuela, deal with Europe's dalliance with Beijing...

6/...while also reaching out for significant climate agreement, battling COVID and, apparently, trying to reheat the War on Terror against domestic insurgents. So in terms of the burdens on US shoulders, further NATO enlargement will prove weighty, even if it may deter hot war.

7/If it's just messaging, with no intent to enlarge? If so, that too has consequences. It feeds the logic of competition with Russia. & it may lead, again, to Georgia finding itself isolated. Recall the assurance that contributing to Iraq would earn support. And then summer 2008.

8/From all the anticipatory gushing over the past few weeks about the stellar quality of the incoming natsec team, no doubt all of these dilemmas have been worked through, and this isn't what it looks like, standard issue theology in place of prudent calculation.