Read on Twitter
Did a little deep dive on James Robinson looking for comps to see if we can deduce how his career might unfold. What I discovered was that he's kind of a unicorn.
1/16
1/16
I did a search with the following parameters:
Position = RB
Undrafted
Rookie Year
Age < 25 (not sure this really filtered anyone out)
Rushing Att. >= 175
PPR points >= 175
2/16
Position = RB
Undrafted
Rookie Year
Age < 25 (not sure this really filtered anyone out)
Rushing Att. >= 175
PPR points >= 175
2/16
This turned up a grand total of 4 players and I did not put in any qualifiers for recency:
James Robinson
Phillip Lindsey
Dominic Rhodes
Ryan Grant
3/16
James Robinson
Phillip Lindsey
Dominic Rhodes
Ryan Grant
3/16
Here's their stats:
4/16
4/16
So let's start with Lindsey, still pretty fresh in all our minds. His situation wasn't an exact comp as he was in a roughly 60/40 split as a rookie with fellow rookie Royce Freeman (he of the 3rd round draft capital and many eager stans in the fantasy world).
5/16
5/16
Lindsey also isn't exactly a great physical comp to JRob, as you'll recall. But it's probably still informative to look at his 2nd-year production. Despite still being locked in a timeshare with Freeman, Lindsey hit 197.7 PPR points or 89% of his rookie totals
6/16
6/16
I think we'd all be thrilled if JRob hit in the neighborhood of 90% of this years PPR points.
But let's move to the next comp, Dominic Rhodes.
7/16
But let's move to the next comp, Dominic Rhodes.
7/16
Rhodes found himself in an interesting situation with the Colts backfield. Thrust into prominence as a rookie due to Edgerrin James tearing his ACL in week 6, Rhodes immediately fueled "RBs don't matter" Twitter (or at least he would have if Twitter had been invented).
8/16
8/16
Edge returned the following year to resume the mantle of lead RB for the Colts. We can only wonder what Rhode's role might have been, had he not torn his own ACL in camp and thus cleared the path for the Edge to resume his workhorse ways.
9/16
9/16
Fun story, but Rhodes injury (hopefully) ended his run as a JRob comp before we could learn much from him.
10/16
10/16
So on to the last comp, Ryan Grant. Despite being a very old first-year player (25), Grant gives us some real encouragement about JRob's prospects as a sophomore. Additionally he is probably his closest comp in a way
11/16
11/16
Notice how I said first-year player instead of rookie? That's because Grant actually was and UDFA of the Giants, who then traded him after 2 years and not a single touch, to the Packers for a 6th round pick.
12/16
12/16
The biggest similarity was that Grant walked into a vacuum created by the departure of the previous workhorse RB (Ahman Green).
Over the course of that first season, Grant dispensed with the competition
13/16
Over the course of that first season, Grant dispensed with the competition
13/16
And in subsequent seasons, Grant was a workhorse. In his second year he logged 312 carries and put up 179.9 PPR points (97% of his first year's total) and in his 3rd year he put up 282 carries and 236 PPR pts (127% of his first year)
14/16
14/16
I don't need to tell you that Arian Foster was also a UDFA like JRob and Grant and albeit he didn't play much as a rookie, he seized control of the Texan's backfield for multiple years once given a fair chance to take the job...despite Ben Tate's 2nd round draft capital.
15/16
15/16
So if you need to see that JRob isn't doomed to lose his job next year, there you have it.
16/16
16/16
