The Greatest Economy Ever? A Requiem

I hear even smart people repeat the lie that somehow the Trump economy was far better than the Obama economy. It’s amazing how this has become Conventional Wisdom, when it is the farthest thing from the truth.

Start with Real GDP. We’ll be generous to Trump and stop the clock at December 2019. At the end of 2019, Real GDP was 0.2% higher that the incoming trend of Obama’s second term

“But better is better,” you say. But why is it better, even by that very tiny amount, a difference of about $43b and 0.2%? Consumption growth was off the Obama trend by 0.9% or $78b

Real investment growth was even farther off the Obama trend, by 2.2% or $75b. We got a 2-quarter bump from the tax bill. That does not look like “taking off like a rocket ship,” as someone once predicted.

So why is the Trump economy 0.2% higher than the Obama 2nd term trend? Hashtag-Socialism.

The “Jobs President?” Hardly

The tax bill helped real DPI growth in 2018, and then it didn’t.

So to sum up