Some thoughts on CAATSA and India. If India doesn't get a waiver, it might be a significant setback to India-US relations. India has been sanctioned before by the US for its nuclear tests. 1/8

If significant sanctions are imposed again, India will conclude that irrespective of how good India-US relations are, the US ends up implementing punitive measure as and when it wants. 2/8

The constituency for strong relations with the US will go on a decline, and those against will be on the rise. India anyway suffers collateral damage whenever the US decides to sanction third countries like Iran or Russia. 3/8

It is relatively easier to find alternative oil suppliers but not so easy to find alternative suppliers of S-400 type air defence systems. Moreover, this hits on what India values the most: autonomy to take its decisions. Purchasing weapons from where it wants is a touchstone.4/8

India thinks it has made sacrifices in the past. It first reduced & then stopped oil imports from Iran despite the fact that some of its major refineries were best suited for processing Iranian crude. US sanctions almost killed Chabahar and the North-South Transport Corridor.5/8

India has massively increased its purchase of US defense systems. But the US wants to replace Russia which is not possible in the medium term. Russia has leased a SSN to India. Will the US ever do something like that? 6/8

Indian leaders will feel that its sacrifices to maintain relations with the US are not adequately appreciated in the US. The US keeps talking of its own steps like signing the nuclear deal and bestowing major defense partner status as if it is doing New Delhi a favour.7/8

Whether Indian grievances are justified or not is another matter. Whether India should just try to maintain the same tempo of relations despite sanctions can also be debated. But, even strong votaries of India-US relations will suffer a setback if sanctions are indeed imposed.8/8