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A thread on public support for the lockdown. There have been at several polls in recent weeks asking about the lockdown over the last week or so.
Overall, there is strong support for the lockdown. ComRes and YouGov both asked if people supported it straight after it was announced:
YouGov found 85% support for the new lockdown, 11% opposed
ComRes found 79% support for the new lockdown, 9% opposed https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/survey-results/daily/2021/01/05/dee1c/1
YouGov found 85% support for the new lockdown, 11% opposed
ComRes found 79% support for the new lockdown, 9% opposed https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/survey-results/daily/2021/01/05/dee1c/1
Looking at more recent polls on the Government's general approach, Opinium's poll at the weekend found that 14% thought they were overreacting to the Coronavirus, 30% that their response was proportionate, 51% that they were underreacting.
https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Opinium-Political-Report-14th-January-2021.pdf
https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Opinium-Political-Report-14th-January-2021.pdf
Survation's most recent poll found that 83% supported the "current rules and restrictions regarding COVID-19", just 7% were opposed. https://www.survation.com/archive/2021-2/
Ipsos MORI's latest found 48% saying the restrictions are not strict enough, 37% about right, just 9% too strict. https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/most-britons-continue-say-they-are-following-coronavirus-rules-almost-half-believe-lockdown
Now, when polls ask about further specific restrictions the picture is a *little* more mixed. For example, YouGov found 52% support for closing nurseries, 57% for closing garden centres, 69% support for compulsory masks in outdoor public places.
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/pkv90of78k/SunOnSunday_CoronaResults_210115.pdf
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/pkv90of78k/SunOnSunday_CoronaResults_210115.pdf
But people would oppose getting rid of support bubbles, or putting limits on exercise outside.
There was some significant minority support for weakening specific rules too - 26% would support re-opening non-essential shops, 27% re-opening schools.
There was some significant minority support for weakening specific rules too - 26% would support re-opening non-essential shops, 27% re-opening schools.
Opinium found similar on schools - on secondary schools 66% supported closure, 27% opposed. Nurseries 31% would like them to stay open, 61% would like them closed. But 53% support takeaway restaurants staying open.
https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Opinium-Political-Report-14th-January-2021.pdf
https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Opinium-Political-Report-14th-January-2021.pdf
Ipsos MORI was slightly different because it asked about policies *if cases continue to rise*. 61% support compulsory masks outdoors, 56% closing nurseries, 48% limiting exercise to 1h a day. But people would oppose banning childcare/support bubbles. https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/most-britons-continue-say-they-are-following-coronavirus-rules-almost-half-believe-lockdown
Now, whenever polls like this come out you get the usual response on social media: "No one ever asked me", "2000 people isn't enough", "No one I know supports the lockdown".
I have a collection of these too Frequently Asked Questions here: https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/4874
I have a collection of these too Frequently Asked Questions here: https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/4874
However, perhaps it's worth dealing with some of the more common ones.
First is "I've done a poll of 50,000 people on Twitter and it says different"
Polls are only meaningful if they are representative of the wider population. Reputable polls go to great lengths through quotas & weights to ensure this. There is no way of doing so on social media
Polls are only meaningful if they are representative of the wider population. Reputable polls go to great lengths through quotas & weights to ensure this. There is no way of doing so on social media
In particular, if you are an account that campaigns against (or for) lockdown, or any other subject for that matter, your followers will be heavily skewed in that direction. It would be like the Tory party doing a poll of their twitter followers and finding themselves ahead.
Second is the "Everyone I know agrees with me" argument. This is because we tend to associate with people from similar backgrounds and with a similar worldview to our own.
If you have trouble accepting that, think of the sort of Lab supporter you see on social media saying they could never be friends with a Tory. Maybe they genuinely don't know any Tories... but the Tories still won the 2019 election.
Our social circles are rarely representative
Our social circles are rarely representative
Polls don't show that no one opposes the lockdown. They show around 10% oppose the lockdown or think it too strict, and significantly more than that think specific parts of it are too strict. That's still millions of people. If everyone you know opposes it, they're in that 10%
Third is the "all the polls are biased". For YouGov ones, this is often comes with the rhetoric that YouGov was co-founded by Nadhim Zahawi, now the govt vaccines minister.
As it happens Nadhim left the company 11 years ago, and is no longer even a significant shareholder ( https://corporate.yougov.com/investors/shareholdings/). More to the point, all the OTHER polls conducted by OTHER companies, NOT founded by Nadhim show exactly the same thing
Ipsos MORI -
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/most-britons-continue-say-they-are-following-coronavirus-rules-almost-half-believe-lockdown
Survation -
https://www.survation.com/archive/2021-2/
SavantComRes -
https://comresglobal.com/polls/snap-poll-new-year-lockdown/
Opinium -
https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Opinium-Political-Report-14th-January-2021.pdf
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/most-britons-continue-say-they-are-following-coronavirus-rules-almost-half-believe-lockdown
Survation -
https://www.survation.com/archive/2021-2/
SavantComRes -
https://comresglobal.com/polls/snap-poll-new-year-lockdown/
Opinium -
https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Opinium-Political-Report-14th-January-2021.pdf
If the polls are part of some evil conspiracy, all these independent commercial companies, they'd ALL have to be part of it together (and with no obvious reason to play along)
The final common criticism of polls is that they are often wrong. Polls do get it wrong sometimes - infamously in 1992 and 2015. But when election polls are wrong they are 3 or 4 points out. If support for a policy is around 80%, an error of 4 points would make little difference
Now, just because the majority of the public support lockdown that obviously does NOT mean that lockdown is right. Polls don't tell you what is right or wrong, they only tell you what the public think, and sometimes the public may be ignorant or illogical or just downright wrong
But there is rarely any point sticking your fingers in your ears and claiming those polls are all wrong and people do in fact agree with you. It just makes you look daft.
