Polling 101: Presidential Approval Poll Survey Basis & Weighting

RCP 2020 data indicates Biden/Harris won approx 51% of the 2020 Popular Vote & Trump/Pence won 47%.

CNN's 2020 exit poll data indicates voter party splits at Dems 37%, GOP 36% & Unaffiliated Voters at 27%

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Based upon the above & other factors, our Likely Voters (LV) survey weighting in 2021 has initiated as follows: D38, R36, IND26.

Today we posted our final LV weighted Trump daily job approval for 1500 national LV completes - Trump Job Approval 51%.

Cue the doubters.

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So Lets Compare:

IBD: 1413 Registered Voters weighted D40, R30, Ind30 - Trump Job Approval 42%.

CNN: 1003 Adults (not RV or LV) weighted D33, R26, Ind41 - Trump Job Approval 34%.

ABC/WaPo: 1002 Adults (not RV or LV) weighted D31, R25, Ind44 - Trump Job Approval 38%.

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Pew: 4040 "2020 Voters" weighted D57, R39, Ind4 - Trump Approval 29%.

Morning Consult/Politico: 1996 RV's weighted D41, R30, Ind29 - Trump Approval 34%.

As you can see, Republicans appear benchmark under-weighted in most of these non-likely voter polls.

The more you know

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