Justin Tucker doesn't miss field goals, and he especially doesn't miss field goals between 41 and 50 yards. So I stayed up way too late last night trying to figure out how he missed from 41 and 46 against the Bills

TLDR: Football is a game of inches.

Background: on kicks between 40 and 49 yards, Tucker misses the center of the upright by an average of 1.15 yards, at least a half-yard more accurate than every other NFL kicker https://operations.nfl.com/gameday/analytics/stats-articles/comparing-kickers-across-the-league-on-accuracy-between-the-uprights/

Here's the path of every Tucker field goal from the last three seasons (grey), and the two kicks off the uprights against the Bills. Both deflections Sunday came from left hash
Purple: 41 yards, deflects inside off left upright
Gold: 46 yards, deflects outside off right upright

Let's look deeper at the miss from 41 yards. The center of the football *crosses the end line* before boomeranging back into the field of play

Here's how close Tucker's kick was to hitting both the opposite upright and the crossbar. Official has eyes right on it underneath, and it lands safely a foot or two in front of the upright

Wind was shifting throughout the game, and obviously had an impact. When Tucker's kick hit the upright, wind doesn't appear strong, but using the view from he kicked it, wind was blowing hard to Tucker's left

My best guess? I'm no physicist, but (i) the wind pushed the ball off it's trajectory and to the left and (ii) the ball's momentum carried it across the end line after hitting the upright, only for the deflection, wind, and ball rotation to carry it back across.

Game of inches.