Dirty little secret of transatlantic relations: a lot of folks in EU preferred Trump 2.0 He was an existential threat to NATO but some saw opportunity in that. Biden's presumed hawkishness on Russia, China, even global kleptocracy a more immediate worry to several EU capitals.

Expect the official line to be one of relief & restoration. In practice, there will be significant EU obstructionism re: U.S. taking a more forceful line on Russia & re-engagement in regions like the Western Balkans. GER already sending clear signals in BiH, for instance.

It's a complex game: Paris & Berlin don't want to confront Moscow but they do want U.S. back in Iran deal. Biden WH wants to contain Iran but also confront RUS, so too China; EU want Chinese biz. Biden is serious about challenging illiberalism, kleptocracy; EU favors appeasement.

Finally, the U.S.-UK relationship will undergo a significant reboot, I anticipate. But you'll again see a sharp divergence re: main geopolitical threats in Eurasia: WH & No. 10 will push for confrontation, EU et al accommodation.

In the Western Balkans, leaders in Sarajevo, Pristina, and Podgorica (DPS et al, at least) will tilt strongly twd Anglo-American camp. Belgrade will lean hard into EU, to obscure its Sino-Russian commitments. Skopje & Tirana will attempt to balance for sake of domestic politics

The game around BiH and Kosovo will be especially delicate and contentious, and I expect some significant diplomatic scuffles btw the Anglo-American & EU camps. This likely won't register in the Western press but it'll dominate local politics in a big way. /xxx