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McFaul's policy recs are all solid, but the discourse around Russia as a rising power really misrepresents the underlying political economy of Russian foreign policy as well as how the 85-86' oil shock and 98' default created an economic orthodoxy now dependent FP activity.
In practical terms, the boom years from 2002-2008 were wasted, the modernization program for the military *was* a huge deal, but losing Ukraine from the EAEU was about Russia's economic failings as is its broader MENA engagement to sustain its supply side oil management needs.
That's not to dismiss plenty of other factors at play, but it's also very problematic to constantly describe Russian policymaking in terms of what Putin is doing rather than the structures of the Russian state and political system that coopt, leech, distort, or take resources.
RT is not part of some grand strategic project, nor can the rise of illiberal political figures in many democracies be ascribed to something Russia has much success fostering. Further, Russia's supply-side orthodoxy increasingly necessitates managed trade and investment.
But these very tools end up harming its ability to secure better relations with partners like China. It's too easy to say Russia is acting out to maintain its status cause its declining. I'd rather argue that its economic failings force it to act, and are a huge pressure point.
The country's basically not grown since 2013 in real terms for most Russians, even its growth from 1999-2008 was constrained institutionally and its fallen massively compared to China, and its reliance on external demand means it lives and dies by foreign central banks/stimulus.
It's done way too little to reduce its O&G dependence and COVID has blown the lid off of market expectations. Even a bull oil market (which I doubt happens) will bring enough marginal supply on stream as to force cuts, which then force other cross-subsidized sectors pain.
It's still hilarious that maintaining bases Russia already had in Syria by intervening continues to be some mark of a massive rise as a powerbroker. Russia's undoubtedly a significant power, but its capabilities are quite limited and not necessarily well spent.
*on
