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1 goal in the last 4 games – but how much has Liverpool’s attacking output really declined? 
A thread…
New to FPL twitter so any RT’s appreciated, and follow me for more threads like this one.
(1/11)
A thread…
New to FPL twitter so any RT’s appreciated, and follow me for more threads like this one.
(1/11)
Firstly, in the last four games Liverpool have played WBA (H), NEW (A), SOU (A) & MUN (H). This season those teams are 20th, 18th, 9th and 11th for minutes per xGC, so far from the best defensive teams in the league.
Let’s delve into the numbers to see what has changed.
(2/11)
Let’s delve into the numbers to see what has changed.
(2/11)
Prior to this baron spell (GW’s 1-14) Liverpool created a chance every 6 minutes, a big chance every 30 minutes and averaged 16 shots per game.
They also racked up 1 xG every 49 minutes.
In comparison, in the the last 4 they have created a chance every 6.1 minutes... (3/11)
They also racked up 1 xG every 49 minutes.
In comparison, in the the last 4 they have created a chance every 6.1 minutes... (3/11)
a big chance every 46 minutes and averaged 16 shots per game.
They also racked up 1xG every 67 minutes.
This means their chance created and average shots stayed the same, but their big chances created and xG decreased by -35%, and -27% respectively.
(4/11)
They also racked up 1xG every 67 minutes.
This means their chance created and average shots stayed the same, but their big chances created and xG decreased by -35%, and -27% respectively.
(4/11)
So we can see that Liverpool are still creating the same number of chances and still shooting as regularly, it is just the quality of those chances that has declined.
They have also been less clinical with an xG delta (difference between actual goals & xG) of -4.64... (5/11)
They have also been less clinical with an xG delta (difference between actual goals & xG) of -4.64... (5/11)
Whereas in the first 14 game weeks this was at +8.76.
Where has this decline come from?
I was interested to see whether Klopp playing Henderson at CB, and TAA’s questionable form had been part of the cause for Liverpool creating fewer big chances, however… (6/11)
Where has this decline come from?
I was interested to see whether Klopp playing Henderson at CB, and TAA’s questionable form had been part of the cause for Liverpool creating fewer big chances, however… (6/11)
it is actually Salah’s chance creation that has reduced most.
Minutes per chance created:
GW 1-14 vs. GW 15-19
Salah 43 vs. 90
Thiago 45 vs. 66
Robbo 48 vs. 45
Trent 53 vs. 50
Mane 56 vs. 60
Firmino 75 vs. 89
Hendo 124 vs. 120
What about FPL? Should I sell Salah?! (7/11)
Minutes per chance created:
GW 1-14 vs. GW 15-19
Salah 43 vs. 90
Thiago 45 vs. 66
Robbo 48 vs. 45
Trent 53 vs. 50
Mane 56 vs. 60
Firmino 75 vs. 89
Hendo 124 vs. 120
What about FPL? Should I sell Salah?! (7/11)
In my view, No.
Whilst Salah’s assist potential has decreased somewhat in the last 4, he is still getting chances just as regularly. In the past 4 he has had a chance every 36 minutes, and whilst this is down vs GW1-14 (23 minutes in this period), it is still better than (8/11)
Whilst Salah’s assist potential has decreased somewhat in the last 4, he is still getting chances just as regularly. In the past 4 he has had a chance every 36 minutes, and whilst this is down vs GW1-14 (23 minutes in this period), it is still better than (8/11)
Son, Sterling, Mane, Rashford etc. Too early to pull the plug on the player who has scored the most FPL points since his arrival to the prem I’d say.
What the data also doesn’t tell us is how the opposition have approached these recent games… (9/11)
What the data also doesn’t tell us is how the opposition have approached these recent games… (9/11)
These average player positions show how deep the opposing teams have sat, which is likely to have contributed to Liverpool being restricted to lower quality chances and having to shoot from range. (10/11)
So in conclusion I’d say Liverpool’s underlying stats aren’t particularly worrying, and I would fully expect them to return to their usual levels of clinical and high output attacking very soon 
(11/11)
(11/11)
