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THREAD: Comparing underlying chances created/conceded by #League1 promotion rivals.
Lincoln, Hull & Doncaster look good...
Pompey, Posh & Sunderland good but declining...
Accrington average start but improving...
Ipswich & Charlton (for opposite reasons) not great...
Lincoln, Hull & Doncaster look good...
Pompey, Posh & Sunderland good but declining...
Accrington average start but improving...
Ipswich & Charlton (for opposite reasons) not great...
AIM: To try and understand who are consistently creating better chances than they are conceding (and so may expect to perform better over a longer term), and who else may have issues likely to restrict future good results.
APPROACH: Compare 10-game rolling average xG For/Against. Single game xG has issues for rating teams, as may be affected by luck or by game state (eg may create less if 3-0 up/down or after a red card). Taking a long-term average reduces individual issues & shows trend over time.
WHAT DOES GOOD LOOK LIKE?: A consistent positive difference (and the larger the better) between xG For and xG Against is what a very good team should show. So consistently creating a better quantity and quality of chances than you are allowing your opponents to have.
Ipswich #ITFC (7th in L1): Consistently no positive difference between chances created & conceded. Therefore generating no advantage here to help outscore teams. Biggest weakness is creativity (low xG For), ranking 12th in L1 for xG For & 15th for Goals Scored. Mid-table output.
Ipswich #ITFC: A big mitigating factor has been injuries. Most strikers injured at start of season, then most midfielders after that. But now players are returning from injury (+ Jan transfer window activity), really need to see an improvement in chances created particularly.
Lincoln #ImpsAsOne (1st in L1): Sustained outperformance in chances created vs conceded. Albeit with a fall in chances created mid-season (leading to 4 losses out of 8), however appear to have recovered in last few games. Ranking Top 3 in both xG For & Against. Looking good.
Hull #HCAFC (2nd in L1): As with Lincoln, sustained outperformance in chances created vs conceded. Only 4 games out of 21 have seen opponents create higher xG than Hull. Rank in the Top 5 for both xG For & Against. Looking very good.
#Pompey (3rd in L1): Big outperformance on xG created vs conceded in first 10 games (+4.6 difference) compared to second 10 games (+0.1 difference). Pompey still rank Top 2 for both Goals Scored & Conceded, but 8th & 10th for xG For/Against respectively. Performance in decline.
Doncaster #DRFC (4th in L1): Sustained outperformance in chances created vs conceded. Rank 7th for xG created & 1st for Goals Scored. If finishing rate declines to average, underlying creation level still good. Sold key player (Whiteman) in Jan which may have future impact.
Peterborough #PUFC (5th in L1): Big decline in xG created vs conceded from first 10 games (+6.8 difference) compared to second 10 games (+0.4). Still ranked overall 4th for xG created and 8th for xG conceded, but driven by earlier outperformance. Underlying performance declining.
Charlton #CAFC (6th in L1): As with ITFC, no consistent positive difference between chances created & conceded. Main weakness defensively, ranking 16th for xG Against & 14th for Goals conceded. Injuries playing a part here too, with out-of-position players often at centreback.
Sunderland #SAFC (8th in L1): Big decline in xG created vs conceded from 1st 10 games (+11.0 difference) to 2nd 10 games (+2.3). Decline primarily in attacking output. Still rank 1st for Total xG created (albeit mainly driven by earlier strong output) but 10th for Goals scored.
Accrington #ASFC (9th in L1): xG created vs conceded was comfortably negative in first 6 games, but regularly positive since (albeit not by a large amount). Results consistent with xG performance, with 3 losses in first 6 games, but then only 2 losses from last 12. Improving.
CONCLUSION: A lot to like about Lincoln, Hull & Doncaster's underlying data. Pompey, Posh & Sunderland have declined from early-season levels. Accrington improving from their start, whilst Ipswich & Charlton will hope injuries clearing up can give them a needed kick-start.
WHAT NEXT?: It's still relatively early to look at long-term averages in a season. Will update on how these measures move every 5 games or so, to see how underlying measures are changing and which teams are improving/declining. Will look at Championship and Premier League too.
CREDIT: For the original idea goes to @Worville @jonollington and @Blades_analytic who have provided similar rolling long-term averages on other clubs too.
May be of interest to... @GabSutton, @eflnumbers, @experimental361, @edward_w97, @NTT20Pod, @GeorgeElek, @AliMaxwell_, @d3d4football, @JRD3D4, @olivermpw_, @Stuart_Watson, @AndyWarren_, @NickAmes82. End of thread.
