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Mamata Banerjee's Muslim Gameplan
The rise of new political contenders like Abbas Siddiqui & @asadowaisi threatens @MamataOfficial's once assured vote bank.
How does the West Bengal chief minister & @AITCofficial propose to retain it?
By Romita Datta https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/nation/story/20210125-mamata-s-muslim-gameplan-1759579-2021-01-17
The rise of new political contenders like Abbas Siddiqui & @asadowaisi threatens @MamataOfficial's once assured vote bank.
How does the West Bengal chief minister & @AITCofficial propose to retain it?
By Romita Datta https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/nation/story/20210125-mamata-s-muslim-gameplan-1759579-2021-01-17
It was the end of May 2019. BJP's aggressive campaign against @MamataOfficial's "appeasement" politics bore fruit as Trinamool ( @AITCofficial) lost 12 seats in the parliamentary election to wind up with a reduced tally of just 22 of the 42 Lok Sabha constituencies in the state.
Hardly had the West Bengal chief minister got time to adjust to the new reality of BJP becoming her chief challenger than a seemingly innocuous question at a post-results press conference on whether she'll attend Iftaar parties threw her into a temper! https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/nation/story/20210125-mamata-s-muslim-gameplan-1759579-2021-01-17
"I appease Muslims, no?" Mamata said. "I'll go there a hundred times. Je goru doodh dei tar lathi-o khete hoi (I am willing to be kicked by a cow that gives milk)." Nothing, she made it clear, would stop her from changing her stance towards a community that had voted for her!
Of the TMC's 43.3 per cent vote share in 2019, Muslims accounted for 23.3 per cent. Minorities comprise 30 per cent (roughly 30 million) of Bengals population
However, two years later, with assembly election in March-April, there are new political contenders which threaten this
However, two years later, with assembly election in March-April, there are new political contenders which threaten this
However, two years later, with assembly election looming in March-April, @MamataOfficial appears unsure about what till recently seemed an assured vote bank.
The choice has become equally vexed for Muslim voter as too many political players have thrown their hats in the ring!!!
The choice has become equally vexed for Muslim voter as too many political players have thrown their hats in the ring!!!
Among them is Pirzada Abbas Siddiqui, of Furfura Sharif. The cleric has expressed a desire to float a socio-political platform along with eight other social orgs. of Adivasis, Dalits & backward classes & contest 44-50 seats from south Bengal in the upcoming assembly election.
Furfura Sharif, located in Hooghly district, controls over 3,000 mosques and several charitable institutions, educational institutes, orphanages, madrasas and health centres. Its writ runs strong among Muslims in the adjacent Howrah, South and North 24 Parganas districts.
These four districts in south Bengal have 25 per cent of state's Muslims & account for roughly 33 per cent, or 98, of state's 294 assembly seats.
@AITCofficial won 11 of 14 parliamentary seats from these districts in 2019, with minorities having voted for @MamataOfficial en bloc
@AITCofficial won 11 of 14 parliamentary seats from these districts in 2019, with minorities having voted for @MamataOfficial en bloc
Till recently, it was Abbas's uncle & senior pirzada, Twaha Siddiqui, who was the face of Furfura Sharif
Known to be close to @MamataOfficial, he was shocked to realise that not only had his nephew charted his own course but also made his position shaky. https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/nation/story/20210125-mamata-s-muslim-gameplan-1759579-2021-01-17
Known to be close to @MamataOfficial, he was shocked to realise that not only had his nephew charted his own course but also made his position shaky. https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/nation/story/20210125-mamata-s-muslim-gameplan-1759579-2021-01-17
Ever since the lockdown, Abbas, the 33-year-old scion of Furfura Sharif, has held more than 60 rallies in South and North 24 Parganas, which account for 65 seats in south Bengal. Each of these gatherings attracted huge crowds. https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/nation/story/20210125-mamata-s-muslim-gameplan-1759579-2021-01-17
The subject of discussions at these rallies varies from religion to politics, but the underlying thread is deprivation of Muslims, their structural backwardness under successive secular regimes, all of whom have offered appeasement but not development in exchange for their votes.
In a state where 80 per cent of the Muslims speak Bengali, Abbas has emerged as @asadowaisi's best bet. The @aimim_national chief has already had preliminary talks with Abbas and agreed to contest the poll under his leadership. https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/nation/story/20210125-mamata-s-muslim-gameplan-1759579-2021-01-17
There are roughly 102 seats in the state where the Muslim vote matters, of which 60 per cent, or 61 seats, are in south Bengal.
@MamataOfficial was able to retain most of these assembly segments in the 2019 general election. But with multiple players she is under stress.
@MamataOfficial was able to retain most of these assembly segments in the 2019 general election. But with multiple players she is under stress.
However, more than the split in the minority vote, Abbas's stand against @AITCofficial government is making Mamata nervous. He's using hard data on development indices, much like the Sachar Committee report in 2009, to inform and educate the Muslims. https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/nation/story/20210125-mamata-s-muslim-gameplan-1759579-2021-01-17
The Sachar Committee's revelations on the condition of Bengal's Muslims under Left rule under @cpimspeak were considered instrumental in the Muslim vote swinging in favour of @MamataOfficial, who was then a rising star and a mighty challenger to the Left. https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/nation/story/20210125-mamata-s-muslim-gameplan-1759579-2021-01-17
Careful not to publicly attack Abbas, @MamataOfficial has reportedly asked Twaha, the senior pirzada, to either rein in his nephew or engineer cracks in new Abbas- @asadowaisi consolidation. Twaha has obliged in a statement declaring, "Politics is no place for a religious leader."
Abbas has retaliated by saying that a religious leader and cleric can show the world the right direction. "What is wrong in having a broader platform to work for the betterment of the poor and weaker sections?" he asks https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/nation/story/20210125-mamata-s-muslim-gameplan-1759579-2021-01-17
@MamataOfficial has deployed All Bengal Imams Association to woo Muslims back to her fold. Of 40,000-odd mosques in West Bengal, the association has members in 23,000 mosques. The president of the association, Md Yahiya, has already said religion and politics cannot go together.
Md. Yahiya said urdu-speaking Muslim organisations from Hyderabad, like @asadowaisi's AIMIM, can never secure a foothold in Bengal.
Mamata, too, maintains that Owaisi represents only 6% of Urdu-speaking Muslims in Bengal and will not impact the remaining 24% of Bengali Muslims.
Mamata, too, maintains that Owaisi represents only 6% of Urdu-speaking Muslims in Bengal and will not impact the remaining 24% of Bengali Muslims.
@MamataOfficial is also using her cabinet minister Siddiqullah Chowdhury, who represents Jamiat Ulema-i-Hind & has clout in Burdwan, Birbhum & East Midnapore districts in south Bengal. Muslims constitute 21% & 35% of the population in Burdwan and Birbhum districts, respectively.
Siddiqullah Chowdhury of Jamiat Ulema Hind likens @aimim_national to the Muslim League and the BJP to the Hindu Mahasabha of pre-Independence days, which had advocated the two-nation theory that led to India's Partition.!!! https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/nation/story/20210125-mamata-s-muslim-gameplan-1759579-2021-01-17
@asadowaisi has been working in Bengal over past year & has built a considerable base in north Bengal's Malda, Murshidabad, and North & South Dinajpur districts. In the general election in 2019, BJP won three of the seven Lok Sabha seats in this region https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/nation/story/20210125-mamata-s-muslim-gameplan-1759579-2021-01-17
The ruling @AITCofficial is clearly rattled. Having competitors for the 30% minority pie, which had been its monopoly for the past decade, will affect the party's vote share. It will also trigger competitive polarisation, which will work in BJP's favour. https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/nation/story/20210125-mamata-s-muslim-gameplan-1759579-2021-01-17
Mamata will find it difficult to break the rabid Hindu polarisation that Owaisi, with his fiery oratory and air of Muslim assertion, will most likely provoke. No amount of doles for Durga puja committees, revamping of Hindu pilgrimage sites or allowances to priests-will suffice.
In all this, it is BJP that seems to be the quiet gainer. Noor-ur Rahman Barkati made no bones about BJP benefitting from the division in minority votes
Anwar Pasha said that @aimim_national's entry in Bengal politics will benefit the BJP in the same way as it did in Bihar.
Anwar Pasha said that @aimim_national's entry in Bengal politics will benefit the BJP in the same way as it did in Bihar.
"No matter how hard we try we will always end up being 30% share behind, with the minorities voting en bloc for whoever has been in power. Now, with more than one player trying to woo the minorities, our job looks easier," says a senior BJP leader, on condition of anonymity.
"We did groundwork for polarisation in 2019. People are polarised; now we just need to sit back and watch. By talking incessantly and overtly about religion, we will put our gain of 20% Left vote share in 2019 at risk." says BJP's Diptiman Sengupta, spokesperson of North Bengal
"A shift of a few percentage points in our favour will be a win-win situation," says BJP national vice-president Mukul Roy.
BJP is going into the Bengal assembly poll with renewed confidence. A split in the Muslim vote can only bode well for the party. https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/nation/story/20210125-mamata-s-muslim-gameplan-1759579-2021-01-17
BJP is going into the Bengal assembly poll with renewed confidence. A split in the Muslim vote can only bode well for the party. https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/nation/story/20210125-mamata-s-muslim-gameplan-1759579-2021-01-17
