We've completed our first 2-weekly bar of the year with growing likelihood we've hit a pivot. As pivots typically range 20-30 bars in length, this indicates the entirety of 2021. Let's measure tail risk.

Small cap single bar risk: 13 - 18%

$RUT $IWM $RTY_F #OG_equities_202101

My focus continues to be the Naz. Its similarities to the 99 top are striking, perhaps an indication that we are headed for one last burst before the hammer finally comes down. Euphoria is a mania state, don't forget.

Naz single bar risk: 5 - 11%

$NDX $QQQ $NQ_F

The Bigs are not eclipsing euphoria on this periodicity, but only just. Its cards not quite tipped yet, my thesis remains that a secular transition begun in 2018 and we've yet to see the end.

Bigs single bar risk: 4 - 10%

$SPX $SPY $ES_F