North Korea expert debate alert as @ArmsControlWonk @NarangVipin @andreilankov @duyeonkim infer Kim Jong Un's intentions from capabilities, statements, history. good stuff from @simondenyer @JobyWarrick https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/north-korea-biden-missile-test/2021/01/18/25268116-594f-11eb-a849-6f9423a75ffd_story.html

Speaking of which, let me recommend newly-published article by a pair of Omaha-based experts on this very topic: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14751798.2020.1857910

obvious dilemma brewing: 1) Biden doesn't pay much attention to Kim given lack of obvious, easy, quick path to progress + his crushing burden of things to do at home. 2) Kim senses neglect, its off to the submarine races etc. 3) Biden assumes Kim not serious about negotiation.

4) All the experts in this article, and me, tell you, see, we told you this would happen! [Pundits gonna pundit].

So surprise us @Transition46 빨리!