Keystone XL has been cancelled. Attempts to revive it reflect the interests of select industry lobbying groups and a distinct part of Alberta's political establishment.

But the chances of Biden saving it are very low, for reasons that are both political and economic. 1/

The pipeline received its initial permit from Bush's State Department in March 2008. US crude production was 5 million bpd, 50% of the country's energy needs were met by imports, and heavy Albertan tar sands was in demand at Texas refineries. 2/

So the project made sense, from an energy standpoint. Canada was (and still is) regarded as the most secure source for US energy imports; it has historically been the most important foreign source of American energy, contributing far more than any OPEC state. 3/

Environmental groups were already fully mobilized against the Bush administration. When the pipeline was announced, they coordinated with tribes in Nebraska and the Dakotas, deploying an argument that combined indigenous land rights with environmental arguments. 4/

Obama came to office with the pipeline more or less ready to go. But the left-wing of the Democratic Party (still in its early days of real organization) were starting to take a notice of the Keystone issue. 5/

Obama slowed the process, pushing TransCanada (the pipeline company and a major midstream development firm) to look for alternative routes. Images of protestors being attacked with water hoses and tear gas made the issue even more of a political hot potato. 6/

All the while, US crude output was ticking up. Fracking had taken off and US output of light sweet crude and natgas was shooting through the roof. Refiners started eyeing adjustments to handle these mixes, rather than Canadian tar (which was also much more expensive). 7/

There is always demand for heavy crude. But tar sands was getting edged out by competing sources that were cheaper to produce. Meanwhile, Obama was getting pushed from the left to cancel the pipeline, while the GOP (after taking the House and Senate in 2010)... 8/

...made the issue even more of a political touchstone by demanding the pipeline be permitted within 60 days in December 2011. Obama tries to have it both ways. In 2013, while State indicates it has no objections to the pipeline route, Obama in June indicates the pipeline...9/

...won't go forward if it adds to the nation's carbon emissions. This busy the admin six months. In early 2014, State clears the pipeline from an environmental standpoint. Meanwhile, US output has reached 8 million bpd and a global supply glut is forming. 10/

The pipeline by this point (2014) has taken over Nebraskan politics. The legislature passes a law allowing the governor to approve the pipeline without federal authority. But a judge throws out the law in Feb 2014. Battles with protestors still rage. Obama latches on...11/

...to the legal issue and State halts the approval process pending the issue's winding way through the courts. In 2014, the price of oil begins to decline. From a year high of $100/barrel, by January 2016 oversupply pushes prices down to less than $40/barrel. 12/

The global oil industry suffers one of the worst shocks in its history. In the US, countless firms cut jobs and economize to keep production going. By 2015, meanwhile, both political pressure and declining economic rational has made Obama wary of the pipeline. 13/

In Nov 2015, Obama officially rejects TransCanada's permit. In 2016, both Hilary Clinton and Bernie Sanders reject the pipeline, though Donald Trump says he will approve it as soon as he becomes president. He does this, but via an executive order in early 2017. 14/

Trump continues to support the pipeline throughout his time as president. But the economics of oil have completely changed since 2008. The US has little need for heavy Canadian crude. Major energy companies began divesting from the tar sands in 2017. 15/

Legal issues slowed the advance of those interests who still wanted the pipeline built. Despite the best efforts of the Trump administration, Keystone XL remained in legal limbo throughout much of his administration. That's where it remains today. 16/

As is often true in the oil and gas industry, what was true yesterday is no longer true today. The economics of the industry are constantly changing. Long delays made the Keystone XL pipeline an uneconomic proposition...17/