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Alexey Navalny arrest leads to another wave of sanctions talk in the U.S. and European capitals. Plausible options after Biden inauguration include coordinated human rights sanctions against Russia’s Federal Penitentiary Service (FSIN) and Interior Ministry / their officials. /1
U.S. can also catch up with EU in sanctioning officials close to Vladimir Putin such as deputy head of Presidential executive office Kiriyenko or FSB director Bortnikov. They were sanctioned by EU and UK in October for Navalny poisoning, without US mirror action. /2
However, targeted asset freezes and travel bans will have little economic effect. And EU seems to have little appetite for broader economic sanctions against Russia. /3
In the US, Biden administration will be pressured to act. It will likely make a determination under CBW Act that Russia has used chemical weapons, but whether it will impose strong sanctions (such as import/export restrictions or banning Aeroflot from US) is a question. /4
If CBW Act is ever applied, Biden administration may expand sanctions on Russian sovereign debt to cover Ruble debt or purchases of foreign currency bonds on secondary market. /5
