Over the last 20 years, the death rate in the UK has fluctuated around 10 per 1000 people per year. So that's one person in every 350,000 per day. So if 4,000,000 have been vaccinated, we might naively expect over ten of them to have died within 24 hours of being vaccinated. 1/

I say naively, because the two events are not independent: the people being vaccinated are the elderly and vulnerable, who are also by far the most likely to die. So the actual number is likely to be much higher than that. 2/

That's why I believe the Norwegians when they say that they have found no evidence that people who died there soon after being vaccinated had their deaths hastened by the vaccine, though it would be interesting to look at the numbers. 3/

I'm aware that this simple piece of mathematics won't persuade any anti-vaxers. 4/4

As several people have pointed out, I accidentally added a zero when multiplying 100 by 365. So the expected number of such incidents, even with the naive calculation, is more like 100 than 10. Embarrassing, but at least the point is reinforced rather than undermined.