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What a disappointing partisan opinion piece - straight out of the AZ GOP's playbook from 2011. Glosses over many important points from the redistricting process and selectively uses its data to trick people who otherwise didn't follow the process 9 years ago there https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1351197753054027780
The most glaring issue right out of the gate - the fact that the map's partisan bent shifted as the #AZ09 became solidly blue - despite operating as a more swingish district at first (and was believed to be a swing seat)
When the map came into existence, broke down as follows
Safe GOP - #AZ08, #AZ06, #AZ05, #AZ04
Safe DEM - #AZ05, #AZ07
Swing - #AZ01, #AZ02, #AZ09
for a state that still was GOP-favored, this balanced partisan fairness with competitiveness well
Safe GOP - #AZ08, #AZ06, #AZ05, #AZ04
Safe DEM - #AZ05, #AZ07
Swing - #AZ01, #AZ02, #AZ09
for a state that still was GOP-favored, this balanced partisan fairness with competitiveness well
But what happened? Democrats were better campaigners. They took the #AZ09, #AZ01, and #AZ02 DESPITE these districts being swing seats. Fact was, the Democrats outclassed the GOP in 2012. It was an impressive show to be sure.
2014 is a worse year, and Democrats lose the #AZ02. GOP wins back control of the delegation. This actually reflects the map responding to change. But Democrats managed to hold #AZ01 - while #AZ09 became more blue thanks to a growing DEM block in that Phoenix area
Arguably the #AZ09 moved out of swing territory at this point. That is a reflection of the changing demographics and coalitions.
But #AZ01 and #AZ02 retain a near tie or GOP bent.
2016 comes around, Dems continue to hold #AZ01 DESPITE Trump winning the seat. GOP holds #AZ02
But #AZ01 and #AZ02 retain a near tie or GOP bent.
2016 comes around, Dems continue to hold #AZ01 DESPITE Trump winning the seat. GOP holds #AZ02
Then we get to 2018 and Democrats take the Senate seat and #AZ02. This again reflects the DEM year. So team blue wins back control of the delegation.
2020 and Dems hold the #AZ01 again despite it being close and the #AZ02, but fail to take the #AZ06 - which came into play thanks to suburban shift. This was meant to be a SAFE GOP seat - but 8 years later things change. But GOP holds it by a nose.
But that have these results shown? A competitive map that forces members to adhere to voter concerns and not go extreme - while at the same time reflecting voter swings. DEMS ran the table in 2012 and that is lazily written off as "gerrymander" but it doesnt hold up to scrutiny
