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Excellent analysis as per usual from Stephen. One idea he raises here which I think is really worth pondering is that welfare cuts for 2020s Cons could become like immigration for 2000s/2010s Labour: an issue they can neither dismiss, tackle or find a way to avoid" https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1351163742516555787
And for symmetrical reasons. For Labour, immigration controls were a policy the voters they were targeting strongly favoured, but that their MPs, activists and media supporters loathed.
Big welfare increases are like that for Cons now - the voters they've targeted and successfully won over in the "red wall" etc favour a stronger safety net. But many MPs, traditional activists, and Con media hate the idea.
Another similarity is the desire to change the subject. Lab kept trying, and failing, to get voters worried about imm to refocus on economics. But voters wouldn't play ball. From 2003-2016 imm then EU was their priority, and Labour had no answer.
Since 2016, imm has fallen off the agenda & Brexit is following suit. Now the Cons face the mirror image problem: trying to persuade voters who are now focussed on economics & welfare to direct their attention back to identity/values issues like immigration etc.
And, just like Labour on immigration, if they try to defuse the issue by offering voters what they want, there is always the risk that the credibility of their promises gets undercut by the evident & vocal hostility of many MPs, activists, and media allies.
