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Short thread: When it comes to post 9/11 US counter terrorism actions, the tone a president chooses to set can significantly impact civilian harm, new Airwars modelling for Somalia suggests. https://airwars.org/conflict/us-forces-in-somalia/
2) George W Bush began US actions against al Shabaab in Somalia in 2007. conducting up to 7 strikes. Obama escalated, with 60 reported strikes during two terms. And Trump actions sharply accelerated to 275 in just 4 years. But reported civilian harm didn't closely track strikes.
3) Even as strikes more than doubled under Obama during his 2nd term, locally reported civilian deaths fell by almost half. Why? Most likely because of the emphasis his national security team began placing on public accountability, and on reducing civilian harm.
4) Among changes implemented by Obama was an expectation of zero civilian deaths from proposed strikes - including by @CIA. His Executive Order of July 2016 also required @ODNIgov to report annually on strikes and possible civilian deaths outside warzones. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/07/01/executive-order-united-states-policy-pre-and-post-strike-measures
5) Trump's 2016 election campaign famously included threats to target families of terrorists - a war crime. And in 2019 he scrapped those parts of Obama's earlier executive order which had provided some accountability for theatres like Somalia and Yemen. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-revocation-reporting-requirement/
6) Back in Somalia, Trump conducted more than four times the strikes carried out during Obama's own two terms. And reported civilian deaths sharply escalated - from 17 alleged deaths during Obama's second term, to 134 under Trump according to Airwars. https://airwars.org/news-and-investigations/new-somalia-resource-shines-light-on-us-counterterrorism-campaign/
7) Partly civilian deaths escalated because of a sharp rise in strikes. And partly because US attacks on al Shabaab increasingly targeted Somali towns where civilians were present. But would many of those @USAfricaCommand strikes have even taken place under different rules?
8) We can see this pattern elsewhere too. In Yemen - parts of which Trump reclassed as an active warzone - the first year of his presidency saw the worst ever reported levels of civilian harm from US actions since 2009. https://airwars.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Eroding-Transparency-Trump-in-Yemen.-Airwars-October-2020.pdf
9) And in the war against ISIS, despite a similar number of strikes conducted by Obama and Trump, reported civilian deaths in Iraq and Syria under the latter were more than double. 'War of annihilation' rhetoric has consequences, it seems. https://airwars.org/conflict/coalition-in-iraq-and-syria/https://airwars.org/conflict/coalition-in-iraq-and-syria/
10) The incoming @JoeBiden administration has an opportunity to reset - and to demonstrate that protection of civilians is not contrary or peripheral to US goals, but a key part of them. Because what a president signals from above really does matter to civilians on the ground.
