@FHeisbourg I am in agreement with @michaelxpettis and have been writing/tweeting about China free-riding the quant easing of other central banks for some time this year. The excuse is they fear creating even more public or quasi-public debt, and bubbles such as real estate 1/7 https://twitter.com/FHeisbourg/status/1351144793242558475

A debate is on whether credit for real estate should be lastingly curtailed, to avoid a debt explosion, or whther priority should be given to increasing demand. One can also argue about the reliability of the GDP +2,3 % figure 2/7

3 Some fiddling with quarterly growth numbers allow to think the yearly figure will be adjusted downwards - to 2 %? cf @nickm4rro but that doesn't mean China hasn't had a real economic victory. I am not very impressed with the alarm over present debt because all major 3/7

4 economies have gone further in debt, public and private: China is in a group, not alone. Like Michael, I question the ability to sustain domestically a high rate of growth because that is what will require additional capital - and lending, now a 4 to 1 ratio 4/7

5 But the external demand engine shows no sign of slowing down. All bets by economists - China getting into a current account deficit, consumption rising at the expense of investment, manufacturing share declining while services grow - are off now 5/7

China is the farthest it has been since 2008 from a converging path with other global economies. The asymmetry and imbalances are growing, not decreasing. Of course official declarations occasionally note the danger and seek to rebalance growth, but is this even feasible now? 6/7

7 If you want to look at "the other China" - the population that instead of "being lifted out of poverty" is trailing way behind the national growth and welfare numbers, just look at Scott Rozelle's writngs to be found at @StanfordREAP 7/7 end