New paper alert! Does carbon pricing reduce emissions? A review of ex-post analyses. Short answer? Not so much. Of the policy tools in the carbon toolbox, c pricing is the tiny flathead screwdriver used to fix glasses. THREAD
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abdae9/meta

A meta-review of all the papers that look at the effects of #carbonpricing *after the fact*. Not models. Not predictions. A careful look at what has happened in the real world. 2/

First: *very* few studies that meet this criteria. Only 37 by my count. Vast majority (70%) study EU c pricing. There is SO MUCH WE DON’T KNOW. 3/

Second: Overall reductions are *really* small: 0-2% per yr. And this doesn’t factor in leakage or potential additionality problems w/ offsets. Leakage doesn’t appear to be an issue in Europe, but looks like a big prob in US (CA and RGGI). 4/

Third: On the whole, taxes do better on reductions than ETSs. Very important to consider as c pricing forges http://ahead.cc  @IETA @EcoMarketplace 5/

Fourth: Limited effects + a lot of political controversy in big emitting countries like US, Australia, Canada, South Africa means we should really think hard abt whether this is a tool we should invest more time and resources in. cc @leahstokes @mmildenberger 6/

Includes excellent work by @esaikawa @ryanrafaty @FelixPretis @GibMetcalf @MichaelAklin
@pol_economist @dcullenward @ murraybrianc among many others cc @ClimateSSN @sais_isep @aradwanski @drvolts @trashfuturepod @KateAronoff FIN 7/