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Donald Ainslie Henderson, MD, MPH ’60, a leader of the international effort to eradicate smallpox – considered one of public health’s greatest successes – and a former dean of what is now the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, died in 2016 
https://www.jhsph.edu/about/history/in-memoriam/donald-a-henderson/
https://www.jhsph.edu/about/history/in-memoriam/donald-a-henderson/
In 2006 Henderson co-authored a seminal public health paper called: "Disease Mitigation Measures in the Control of Pandemic Influenza" Let's take a look at it now:
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.552.1109&rep=rep1&type=pdf
Let's take a look at it now:http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.552.1109&rep=rep1&type=pdf
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELS:
"Recently, a number of mathematical models have ex-
amined various combinations of disease mitigation mea-
sures for pandemic influenza. Such models consist of
computer simulations of disease outbreaks that are devel-
oped from very limited data >>
"Recently, a number of mathematical models have ex-
amined various combinations of disease mitigation mea-
sures for pandemic influenza. Such models consist of
computer simulations of disease outbreaks that are devel-
oped from very limited data >>
..regarding the epidemiologi-
cal and biological characteristics of influenza and a series
of assumptions about the likely compliance of the popu-
lation, the feasibility of applying various interventions,
and so on. >>
cal and biological characteristics of influenza and a series
of assumptions about the likely compliance of the popu-
lation, the feasibility of applying various interventions,
and so on. >>
"The predictions provided by such models canvary widely depending on the assumptions that are made
in their construction."
