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The Libyan dialogue meets today to agree on a voting mechanism for a new executive. Behind the scenes, the PM Sarraj is seen as angling foil the talks (he's not alone) and to then announce a new government with himself as president and a new prime minister.
This would take out two people Sarraj has consistently opposed: Aguileh Saleh and Fathi Bashagha. Question is how sustainable this new government would be.
So what happened between September, when Sarraj said he wanted to resign, and this moment? Lot's of speculation, but what's certain is there were pressures on him to stay on
Sarraj had made up his mind to step down during one of his Bahrain retreats, when he typically shuts off his phone and becomes really hard to contact. He cancelled an international visit, notified key capitals, and seemed to be ready to call it a day.
Turkey among others expressed surprise--and some dismay. After his return to Tripoli he also came under pressure from his allies/patrons in the capital. Also, he insisted on blocking one outcome: an Aguileh Saleh presidency.
Privately Sarraj justified his opposition to Saleh because he argued he was a Haftar proxy. Libyan and international interlocutors didn't buy it. As one Libyan official said, Sarraj's plan needed Haftar's buy in for PM, so dealing with Haftar wasn't an issue.
His main issue seems to have been an Aguileh-Bashagha ticket. The latter was never really acceptable to Sarraj, and certainly unacceptable to Sarraj allies, especially among the Tripoli militias.
Question is, what does Haftar do now? This rids him of Aguileh Saleh and maintains some status quo privileges. On the other hand, he always justified mid negotiations 2019 offensive by claiming that Sarraj was in the pocket of militias and not an independent decision maker.
