Comments on the vaccine roll out in England/UK.

A thread.

Firstly, well done on acquiring vaccines and so far distributing the *first dose* to a large proportion of the public. This is the chart per 100 population (numbers are percentages). Israel/UAE/Bahrain doing better.

This is the vaccine roll out total doses.

We're doing pretty well here too (USA and China have larger populations, so we would expect them to have vaccinated more people)

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

On First vs Second doses.

We are limited by supply of vaccine, so most people are getting only the first dose. We need to make sure that people who have had their first dose also get their second dose at the appropriate time.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-people_who_have_received_vaccinations_by_report_date_daily

The JCVI set out a clear priority order for how vaccines should be prioritized.

This is to reduce the number of deaths. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan

This is the list for Phase 1. We have been told that Phase 2 will be published in mid-February.

The Government has interpreted this as grouping Priority 1 and Priority 2 together.

However, we are told that we are lagging behind in vaccinating residents of care homes and their carers.

However, we have only been told piecemeal statistics for this group.

We are given data for over- and under-80s, but this is not useful in determining how many of each priority group have been offered vaccines.

The Vaccines Minister gave an interview today where we were told that due to large number of over-80s being vaccinated, the Government was moving on to vaccinating over-70s. https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1351088938660859906

These are the next groups. The Government is playing down vaccine distribution in several groups:
- care home residents
- residential care home workers
- healthcare workers
- social care workers
- clinically extremely vulnerable under-70s.

Vaccinating over-70 mobile adults by itself will not be sufficient. We need to ensure that we have statistics for each of these groups, and demographic information - where, who.

The JCVI have been very clear in pointing the potential inequalities in vaccine distribution.

The JCVI produced an entire appendix on vaccine and health inequalities.

Here it is. It's easy to ignore. It shouldn't be ignored. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/priority-groups-for-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-advice-from-the-jcvi-30-december-2020/annex-a-covid-19-vaccine-and-health-inequalities-considerations-for-prioritisation-and-implementation

The percentage of deaths *saved* is contingent upon:
- all people in these groups being offered a vaccine
- all people in these groups taking up that offer
- both doses being given
- perfect vaccines (ie. no deaths following vaccination)
- the health service being overwhelmed.

If we are chasing the statistic of the *number* of people given the first dose, we risk overlooking the vulnerable, the hard to find, & the disadvantaged.

These are the groups where the outbreaks can and do occur, risking resurgence in the virus and a further cycle of lockdowns.