We had an opportunity early on. The virus was relatively stable, https://twitter.com/ct_bergstrom/status/1351061927020130312

The was still time to suppress the virus. But that required vigorous Government interventions learning from early mistakes.

Instead we had numerous Governments around the world either not trying at all (Brazil/ Iran) or with such incompetence (US/U.K./ Spain/Italy/France) that the virus was given ample opportunity to mutate and spread. And it has doubled WW since Nov, but even more since Sept.

More easily seen on a log scale.

Of course vaccinations help ...but as long as significant parts of the population remain unvaccinated, or to the extent vaccination does not prevent transmission the more likely it is that the virus can settle into a cycle of mutations. https://twitter.com/ct_bergstrom/status/1351096517218729985

In turn that creates the conditions of immunity escape.

It’s just so dim, self defeating.

Of course one wonders how many other mutations, maybe big ones, that already exists but are not identified for want of adequate national systematic genomic surveillance either due to poverty or wilful refusal to invest in it.

We even have politicians talking of relaxation of restrictions in February here, who will try and deny responsibility when the virus continues to mutate beyond the current vaccines’ ability to provide protection, fixing us in a cycle of viral assault.