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There’s lots of excitement about $VGX lately. With 7% staking interest taking effect in March (for holders of 5k+ tokens), what’s the cost/benefit of holding longer term vs setting a price target(s) for a 2021 exit?
Time for a $VGX $BQX thread
Time for a $VGX $BQX thread
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For my own investing analysis, I wanted to look at the impact of two scenarios:
-scenario 1: set a price target and exit this year
-scenario 2: hold until 2025, continuing to collect staking interest
For my own investing analysis, I wanted to look at the impact of two scenarios:
-scenario 1: set a price target and exit this year
-scenario 2: hold until 2025, continuing to collect staking interest
3/
Both scenarios assume selling interest tokens when they’re issued each month (but not touching principal).
This is not intended at all to indicate price target levels. This is simply to demonstrate two different directional paths.
Both scenarios assume selling interest tokens when they’re issued each month (but not touching principal).
This is not intended at all to indicate price target levels. This is simply to demonstrate two different directional paths.
4/
Some assumptions to note:
-scenario 1 sells at $9 prior to a $12 cycle top (extremely idealistic to only sell 25% from the top)
-using 7% staking interest for year 1 of new loyalty program, 6% year 2, and 5% year 3 (conservative)
Some assumptions to note:
-scenario 1 sells at $9 prior to a $12 cycle top (extremely idealistic to only sell 25% from the top)
-using 7% staking interest for year 1 of new loyalty program, 6% year 2, and 5% year 3 (conservative)
5/
-we peak in Q4 2021, and then have a 2-yr drawdown of 40%* concluding in Q4 2023
-we then begin to ascend with a 33% annual increase (2024) followed by a 100% annual increase (2025) - both very conservative IMO
*more on this later
-we peak in Q4 2021, and then have a 2-yr drawdown of 40%* concluding in Q4 2023
-we then begin to ascend with a 33% annual increase (2024) followed by a 100% annual increase (2025) - both very conservative IMO
6/
-$1 entry price, total of 5k tokens
I’m not saying at all that these are things I think will happen, just trying to explain the framework for this exercise.
-$1 entry price, total of 5k tokens
I’m not saying at all that these are things I think will happen, just trying to explain the framework for this exercise.
7/
Here’s how this plays out. Red outlined cells show total portfolio value of scenario 1 (exit at $9 target), and year end portfolio values for scenario 2 (holding). Both include value of interest tokens sold.
Here’s how this plays out. Red outlined cells show total portfolio value of scenario 1 (exit at $9 target), and year end portfolio values for scenario 2 (holding). Both include value of interest tokens sold.
8/
Closing thoughts:
-scenario 2 holder’s portfolio value is less than scenario 1 seller *one* time (highlighted in yellow)
-scenario 2 holder ends up with a portfolio value of more than 2x scenario 1 seller after 4 years (very conservative)
Closing thoughts:
-scenario 2 holder’s portfolio value is less than scenario 1 seller *one* time (highlighted in yellow)
-scenario 2 holder ends up with a portfolio value of more than 2x scenario 1 seller after 4 years (very conservative)
9/
There is a case to be made that Voyager (and $VGX) is insulated from any potential upcoming crypto bear market due to expansion of product offerings and the value that the token can offer within the ecosystem. https://twitter.com/DigitalDoji/status/1350847169000050693?s=20
There is a case to be made that Voyager (and $VGX) is insulated from any potential upcoming crypto bear market due to expansion of product offerings and the value that the token can offer within the ecosystem. https://twitter.com/DigitalDoji/status/1350847169000050693?s=20
10/
This demonstration also doesn’t examine the benefit (and savings) of being taxed at a long term capital gains rate (scenario 2 holder) vs short term capital gains rate (scenario 1 seller).
This demonstration also doesn’t examine the benefit (and savings) of being taxed at a long term capital gains rate (scenario 2 holder) vs short term capital gains rate (scenario 1 seller).
