1/ Let me preface these latest thoughts with the following: they are based solely on my intuition, not on-chain data and certainly not technical analysis. That said, I think I have a pretty good sense of the macro environment and human psychology as they relate to markets, so…

2/ As I alluded to in an earlier tweet, I’m more optimistic about #BTC at this very moment than I have been since we hit the ATH ten days ago. My reasons are many:

3/ What caused the two-day rebound on Jan 13-14? No, not false hope resulting in a dead-cat bounce. New demand in the form of Grayscale reinitiating its purchases. $700M in inflows in one day, in fact, the single largest daily inflow in GS history. GOOD.

4/ As I’ve stated for a while, we haven’t touched the 20DMA in almost two months. We’re overdue for a reversion to the mean, and it looks like we might finally get it within the next 48 hours. GOOD. It will create a great buying opportunity for people still looking for an entry.

5/ FUD is flat-out rampant right now, at least on CT, and for the first time in a long while, I’m sensing capitulation, where all hope seems lost. GOOD. No, NOT good that some have lost all hope, but GOOD that capitulation is often an indication a bottom is near.

6/ The attached chart illustrates that for the first time in a long time, we have something resembling sideways trading. GOOD. No, NOT good for those who bought at/near the ATH ($41K+), but good in that we need to consolidate and that FINALLY appears to be happening.

7/ Despite the insane multi-thousand $ intraday swings recently, the attached table shows that the largest total drawdown we’ve had based on daily closes is 17.3%, and even with this drawdown, #BTC is STILL up 23.8% in January thus far. 23.8%! GOOD.

8/ Finally, Big $ continues flowing in, even if it has temporarily slowed a bit recently. i.e., New whales continue to evolve, with 4 new BWs and a staggering 151 new Orcas in January alone thus far, with the two pods devouring net 100K new coins. GOOD.

9/ All of this is to say I feel very good about where we are at the moment, despite the huge intraday swings and generally downward trending PA. Institutional investment is strong, and I think we’ll see it pick back up full force this coming week.

10/ This resurgent Big $ demand, combined with near-capitulation among the more speculative subset of retail investors, will fortify a new price floor near $34K, IMO. And once the concrete on that new floor fully dries, we will be well-positioned to launch higher. Much higher.

11/ In fact, I would go as far to state that I think we will soon skyrocket because most of the shakeout required for a solid base should run its course within the next 48 hours. I do think we’ll need one more good swoon toward the low $30Ks to reach full capitulation, though.

12/ But once we do, those still standing will be in for a treat. I see no other way. It’s simple supply and demand. There is a fixed supply of BTC and deep pockets are coming for their bite of the #BTC pie.

13/ And their desired share of the pie is so big that, with so little true float remaining, price will soon start making 5-figure leaps. Is this a certainty? Of course not. But for the first time in a while, I feel very confident about this outcome. That said…

14/ The global macroenvironment is really fragile such that even the honey badger that is BTC cannot avoid being swept up in any chaos. But short of that, we will once again be off to the races. Only IMO, of course. But shoot, I feel really good about the prospects.

Go #BTC .