Read on Twitter
5 points on the substance of the 2018 Home Office analysis on increases in serious violence reported here:
1) Highlights drug markets as a key driver
2) 1/2 the increase in #knifecrime/ #guncrime/robbery due to recording changes
3) Largely excludes #stopsearch reductions as causal https://twitter.com/DannyShawNews/status/1350886578391031808
1) Highlights drug markets as a key driver
2) 1/2 the increase in #knifecrime/ #guncrime/robbery due to recording changes
3) Largely excludes #stopsearch reductions as causal https://twitter.com/DannyShawNews/status/1350886578391031808
4) Cuts to police resources and proactivity are highlighted, but as a permissive factor (compared to greater resources) rather than as a trigger. That seems pretty uncontroversial to me.
5) I suspect this might actually be the most controversial suggestion: that increased diversion from the youth justice system "may have raised crime levels amongst the most serious offenders" - and by implication have gone too far.
Hope you'll excuse a quick plug for this thread from 2019, in which I proposed 7 hypotheses for the increase in #knifecrime. Lots in common with the Home Office analysis (which I obviously hadn't seen). https://twitter.com/gmhales/status/1124226053327638528?s=19
And on the links between drugs markets and violence, the main report and my (more discursive) supporting report here https://www.crestadvisory.com/post/understanding-what-is-driving-serious-violence-drugs
