#COVID in Israel, thread with some possible explanations.
Within the last 4wks:
1. Massive vaccination campaign, with ~80% of the >60 population vaccinated.
2. A third national lockdown declared.
3. Huge surge in cases and deaths.
@EricTopol and others ask "what is going on?"
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The question being, why have we yet to see a positive effect of both these dramatic measures?
Here are some important points to consider in this regard.
1. The vaccine campaign (correctly) targeted at-risk individuals, mainly the over-60 population.
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2. Yet the drivers of the infection wave are the younger population, who have not been vaccinated up till now (rollout for younger people starting this week!).
3. The vaccination campaign is a success. But vacc % are low in some high-morbidity communities. See plot:
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4. Much lower compliance with lockdown. Combination of pandemic fatigue, loss of trust in government decisions, and the "positive" effect of the vaccination campaign. Attached plots show that the reduction in mobility is ~50% less than the previous lockdowns.
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Bottom line -
Lockdown has been not as strict as previous lockdowns; The vaccine campaign was both not designed to reduce the current infection wave + relatively low vacc % in some disease hot spots.
I do believe&hope we are nearing the turnaround!
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p.s.
I had not mentioned the spread of B.1.1.7 and other variants which is the default answer nowadays,
obviously this could have a major impact as well.
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