Are Russian security personnel operating in #Belarus? While there is no smoking gun, It’s entirely possible. I’ve been closely watching Belarus (and the Kremlin’s role there) since August. Here’s what we know so far from open sources:

(A thread)

Russian media outlet RT head Margarita Simonyan called for “polite men” to “put things in order” in Belarus on August 14. “Polite men” is a Kremlin euphemism for Russian military forces in unmarked uniforms (alternatively known as “little green men”) deployed to occupy Crimea 1/x

Unmarked Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) trucks reportedly were spotted in Smolensk heading toward the Belarusian Border on August 16, 2020. The trucks had no military license plates and were not marked with Russian flags.

https://twitter.com/CurrentTimeTv/status/1295302899510190082

2/x

Security personnel wearing unmarked uniforms appeared in Minsk for the first time on September 5, 2020. These personnel reportedly were Belarusian riot police (OMON) in new uniforms.

3/x

However, Belarusian OMON previously wore all black uniforms w/ identifying markings. It's unclear why Belarusian OMON would have changed their uniforms & removed markings. This was a strange (and still unexplained) development.

4/x

This change in uniforms could, among other things, indicate preparation to set conditions for the appearance of Russian security personnel in similar unmarked uniforms. 5/x

Elements of 2 Rosgvardia units deployed to Minsk on September 28–October 3, 2020, for a small arms military sports tournament that was effectively a series of tactical exercises with Belarusian special forces. Both these Rosgvardia units have experience operating in Ukraine.

6/x

Rosgvardia and the Belarusian Interior Ministry ratified a cooperation agreement on November 19, 2020, permitting Rosgvardia personnel to operate in Belarus. This is one of the most worrying indicators.

https://pravo dot by/document/?guid=12551&p0=I02000029&p1=1&p5=0

7/x

Most recently a Belarussian protester named Yuri Shershen claimed unmarked Russian personnel detained and beat him in Minsk on December 20, 2020. He claimed that during detention an unmarked Russian security agent said, “I came here from Moscow to help,” among other things.

8/x

The Kremlin already may have deployed Rosgvardia personnel to Belarus to augment Belarusian security forces, which are operating at reduced strength following a steady trickle of personnel resignations since the crisis began in August 2020.

9/x https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/14/lukashenko-belarus-by-pol-security-forces-protests/

This data tells us the Kremlin has the capability to send Russian security forces to Belarus and has set conditions to do so through formal agreements with Belarusian authorities and information operations.

10/x

It will likely be harder to detect and identify covert Russian operators inside Belarus in 2020/2021 than it was to do so for covert Russian operators in Ukraine in 2014.

11/x

Ukraine has taught Putin many lessons in opsec and informational cover. If Putin employs little green men again in Belarus or elsewhere, the Kremlin's measures to preserve their cover will be much stronger than in Ukraine in 2014, where Russian forces were sloppy.

12/x

The West should prioritize depriving Russian/ Russian proxy / Russian conventional forces of their deniability. We must actively challenge Russian information campaigns.

13/x

If you've found this thread interesting, be sure to follow @TheStudyofWar’s coverage and analysis of the crisis in Belarus. We are tracking this evolving situation in real-time and publish updated assessments regularly.

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