Prerequisite to understand global economic activity, CB set IR's, debt, QE, & resultant asset prices. Quick demographic tutorial.
Below, global 15-35yr/old females, annual births, and post childbearing 35+yr/old females...plus likely actual births vs. UN medium variant data.
Below, global 15-35yr/old females, annual births, and post childbearing 35+yr/old females...plus likely actual births vs. UN medium variant data.
But to gauge the impact of population change on economic activity (& the motivating factor behind .Gov and CB reactions)...break it down by ave. income per group.
High Income=$45k, China=$10k, Upper Middle (x-China)=$9k, Lower middle=$2k, Lowest Income=$820.
High Income=$45k, China=$10k, Upper Middle (x-China)=$9k, Lower middle=$2k, Lowest Income=$820.
But a quick check of the groupings that do 80%+ of the consumption, have 80%+ of income, savings, access to credit...and the group the lower income nations are dependent upon for exporting their way to higher incomes...Again, 15-35yr/old childbearing and births.
Change per period in consumer nations births (as above, these #'s are inclusive of ongoing rates of immigration & immigrant births).
To highlight the deceleration and transfer of pop. growth from high to low income nations (inclusive of ongoing est.'s of immigration/immigrant births)...check changing 15-35yr/old females/births by period.
To wrap, annual change in births incl. income groups...& the same multiplied by GNI per capita of each grouping to highlight the overweighting of growth among wealthy...& shift to synthetic growth (ZIRP, QE, Deficit) to mask declining organic growth.