Why do Ponzi schemes eventually unravel? I believe Football Index is in the late stages of the ponzi and the lack of new money is hurting FI financially hence removal of IPDs and IS

Lack of new money means they can’t give you the good returns anymore. #FootballIndex

These are considered red flags that an investment may be a Ponzi scheme. How many of these are true about Football Index over the last few years when early birds were making ££?

If it looks like a Ponzi, talks like a Ponzi and acts like a Ponzi then it’s a Ponzi

#FootballIndex

Only play with money you would be fine losing (e.g £10 you'd spend on an accumulator). Football Index themselves are clear it's a GAMBLING product yet I see many treating it as an investment and gambling far more than they would on traditional bookies.

FI just removed one of the best ways to make returns with 30 days notice due to financial problems but try to make it appear positive by dangling the carrot of Germany.

I’m struggling to find any reason why specifically IPD’s would affect their ability to launch in Germany

There is no ulterior motive for me (e.g Betfair). I invest my money into stocks.

I just really don’t want to see people lose life-changing sums of money because they thought they were making an investment when they were gambling.

If you play with small stakes then no issue

Football Index has a very passionate + defensive community and I don’t want to anger people but I can’t sit back and watch what I think is a Ponzi scheme slowly unravel and let people hold the bag without saying anything.

Do not play with money you can’t afford to see hit 0.

Ultimately how long Football Index goes on for depends on the IPD replacement. FI will know 'investor' confidence is dwindling and a bad replacement could accelerate the decline but with finances hurting how ambitious can they make the IPD replacement?

Ultimately IPD's were cut because they were costing too much. So the replacement will need to cost less (lower returns for 'investors') but be framed in a way that doesn't make people pull their money out of what is already a rapidly deteriorating pool. #FootballIndex

As a football fan and someone who likes to invest #FootballIndex is a highly interesting business and story. I strongly believe that it's unsustainable and only way for survival past 2 years time is new customer money to inflate prices (expansion to Germany etc)

Yet #FootballIndex has a history of promising things and not delivering (NASDAQ integration) and previous failed expansion attempts (Sweden).

Do you take them on their word about German expansion? That's the real gamble for FI 'investors', and it's much riskier than they think

I put in a very small amount of money into #FootballIndex back in 2016 to test it but ultimately the business model didn't make sense for me. As long as new money is flowing in then returns are good, but there is only so much new money you can bring in before it collapses.

#FootballIndex business model. How can they give you positive returns and still pay costs? By using money from new deposits to pay the old players. When it comes time for the new players to collect their returns the scheme collapses unless there are even more new players

#FootballIndex business model only works when there is new money entering constantly. Otherwise either the investors lose (and stop playing) or Football Index loses (and goes bust).

Am I wrong? Recent big price declines and IPD removal is due to lack of new money entering.

After some more thought, maybe Ponzi scheme was too harsh. If majority of football index users accept they will lose money to the house (FI) and small % of sharp users then business model is sustainable.

But I don’t think many investors accept they will lose and expect

They will be able to make money hence why they gamble way more on Football Index than they would on other betting platforms.

Only way majority of users can win is with new money entering the Index, otherwise someone has to lose to pay for FI’s costs.

Thanks to @JDFI_Tweets for his thoughts and insight.