$SKLZ We model Skillz GMV to become larger than five publicly traded mobile game publishers combined by 2024; we think Skillz will can grow GMV at 42% CAGR from 2020E to 2024E, reaching $1B in revenue

@Soumyazen

Our model implies Skillz hosted games will comprise 6% of global Mobile Video Game In App Purchases by 2024, which we model growing at 10% CAGR to $116B

We expect that heavy UA investment and demand-side economies of scale will compound to grow Skillz MAUs to ~10MM by 2024; guidance by the company implies plans to spend $400MM on UA through FY22

We model MSD Y/Y growth in ARPU for Skillz, culminating at $100/MAU in 2024; Skillz’s ARPU was much higher than ZNGA or GLU in ‘19A and ‘20E

Skillz current portfolio of Casual games are mostly focused on Match 3, Puzzle, Card/Board and Simulation sub-genres. These genres had a total ARR of $10B of user spending as of June '20; Skillz appears underrepresented in Core and Casino class games, which are both large markets

Skillz identified a number of competitors, all of whom have failed to launch a similar platform, or seem too small to pose credible competition