Since she’s now officially the Main Character on here today, I’m amazed at how perfect an avatar this lady is for Econ Brain. Between her Narcan paper and her Ban the Box (can’t screen out nonviolent criminals before job interview itself), it’s a very clear pattern. https://twitter.com/jenniferdoleac/status/1132155839802990592

Step 1: Someone complains about [current societal outcome] and proposes [intervention] to fix it. You like CSO (or dislike funding I), but since CSO is seen as bad by normal people, you can’t directly argue It’s Good, Actually, since you work somewhere more respectable than GMU.

Step 2: Say “Look, we ALL agree CSO is bad, we just disagree on how to best address the problem! Let’s study it and find out.” Now, take a $5mm grant from the Definitely Not Causing CSO At All Charitable Trust to study it in depth [ed: This is where you underpay your RAs]

Step 3: You’re a pretty smart person who got a B+ in real analysis and knows how to run a linear regression. You put out Paper A (huge effect size but tiny sample cohort study) or Paper B (intricate model with p<10^-27 but with a tiny effect size), dealer’s choice.

Step 4: The conclusion of A or B is the same: [Intervention] causes [externality], which negates its benefit. You fool! By doing a thing, you have made the problem worse! There are Complex Nonlinearities in this system! You’re just not as smart as An Economist Such as Me!

Step 5: If someone points out any of the obvious methodological errors, drag them into a Twitter fight about RDD. If they instead make a critique like “your proposed externality can just have another intervention target it”, block them instead for sophism/harassment.

Step 6: Popularize your finding! Weirdly, there’s never a shortage of rich and connected people who love to hear your TED talks about how making the world better actually always makes it worss. Plus, wonks will cite your paper frequently, boosting H-index and getting you tenure!

Step 7: Enjoy your cushy $250k/year tenured position at an R1 with $10mm in annual grants from the Center for Indoor Air Research and speaking fees to boot. Don’t ask tough questions and don’t say stupid shit on Twitter to draw attention and you can milk this grift for years.