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I'm reorienting this Twitter account towards tech & investing, & mostly away from Covid.
Background:
1. In mid March, when we had little info & it looked like Covid might be a 1918 redux, I shifted every company I'm involved with to work from home. 1/x
Background:
1. In mid March, when we had little info & it looked like Covid might be a 1918 redux, I shifted every company I'm involved with to work from home. 1/x
In April NYC looked precarious. Charts of 1918 Philly vs St Louis went viral. People screamed about invoking the defense production act to produce ventilators. "Lockdown to save the health system" became the mantra. Masks went from useless to the new condom. 2/x
Then we started learning. Protect nursing homes & the elderly seemed obviously the key. Ventilators actually killed in many cases. Weirdly, some places that did little seemed ok (Japan, Mumbai slums) while others that had military enforced lockdowns were destroyed (Peru). 3/x
In US regions that opened, a summer spike happened. If you read the headlines, Houston was going to collapse, but didn't. In general, warmer places seemed to be doing ok. @BallouxFrancois warned that cold weather would make things worse, so we needed a sustainable approach. 4/x
Then large states like Florida reopened. If you read the headlines or Fauci, they were doing everything wrong, while states that locked down were being smart. It shocked me that none of the critics seemed to factor in anything besides Covid in their judgments of right & wrong 5/x
Several academic friends from school (by their credentials you would classify them as geniuses) were sure that people had lost their minds, but felt they would face professional repercussions if they spoke out. 6/x
Around this time, my first kid was born & I went on paternity leave. Most of California remained locked down, & I didn't have anything to do. Enter Twitter 
7/x
7/x
I've never particularly worried what people think of me, so I decided to amplify my friends' thinking here along with scientists whose work/holistic thinking they held in high regard ( @sdbaral @MartinKulldorff & many more). 8/x
Given how controversial the subject was, I also read the primary sources myself. This way, in cases when I was wrong, I could own it. *Everyone* has been wrong on some aspects of Covid policy, but the folks who refuse to update with new data are doing by far the most harm IMO 9/x
Looking back to March/April, nearly every reason for extreme panic has turned out not to be true. This is NOT to say Covid isn't terrible; it IS terrible. It's just not as terrible as we feared. 10/x
But the goalposts moved & Covid death became the only thing. The global consequences of the western response will be far worse than the lives saved in eg CA vs FL. Maybe, ultimately, CA will have less death per million elderly people, but that's NOT a comprehensive metric 11/x
I had an aha moment last night. Even when the Fauci's & Jha's had changed their tune on schools, folks who wanted schools closed simply found other harbingers of doom to latch onto. Maybe they will be proven right in the end, but it's not bec they listened to scientists 12/x
That's why I'm shifting my Twitter energy. For those of you who don't know me off platform, I'm actually a super optimist & enthusiastic about almost everything. Despite the lack of success in shifting CA, its been a fun way to meet smart people & reconnect w/ old friends. 13/13
I have to add one more thing. I wish Trump had said in June, "we must keep public schools closed" because then I'm pretty sure the narrative would have been, "Trump wants to hurt poor people and of course we must open schools." 
