I’ve heard and read many times @HowardMarksBook and others speak about how times of panic/fear/chaos bring the best opportunities for generating excessive returns in markets. Today I think was the first time I was really able to experience why first-hand... 1/n

I was boarding my flight when I was told we needed face shields to be able to enter the aircraft (destination country’s requirement). The airline’s staff was going to go buy them for people who didn’t have it, and they were only accepting cash in Brazilian Reais... 2/n

I, however, only had a credit card and US Dollars with me. Boarding was close to finishing and so I asked them to pls buy it for me (ofc, or else I wouldn’t fly) and I’d go exchange my money. In doing so, I gave 10 USD and in return got 36 BRL... 3/n

In a normal situation, 10 USD would have probably gotten me around 52 BRL. So I lost about 30% of value just because I was in a desperate situation. To be honest, I’d have probably accepted it even if I had to pay 50 USD for those same 36 BRL I needed for the face shield... 4/n

This might have been the worst trade I’ve ever done. And it goes to show (at least in my interpretation) that indeed some of the investments with the most asymmetrical risk you’ll ever find are in times of chaos and panic. Know how to take advantage of them... 5/n

Recognizing them might not be the most difficult task (08-09, March 2020, etc)... the challenging part, really, is being able to act when those opportunities arise. But if you do act and if you’re patient, then chances are you’ll make great returns from those moments... 6/n

I’m a huge believer in the growing productivity & innovation in America and in the so-called “roaring 20s” that we have coming. If you are, too, then those moments might be your best chance to bet on that growth. And remember, long-term thinking matters... 7/n

Thoughts? Agree/disagree? Would love to chat about it further! /End