[Thread] Everything we need to know to halt spread of #Covid19 is hiding in plain sight at this NPHET briefing

‘7 things we ~could learn~ if we looked harder’ 1/ https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0114/1189824-5-things/

‘almost 1/2 of Ireland's cases since beginning of pandemic reported in last 2 weeks’
So
*it doesn’t spread like flu, avg contacts only 5
*it spreads by clusters, it’s environmental
But
*NPHET have flu epi model, not clusters
*HSE have flu rules & advice, not environmental control

‘208 deaths, 23 linked to hospital outbreaks & 38 to nursing home outbreaks’
So
*30% deaths were in ~outbreak~ in medical care
*outbreaks (clusters) can be mitigated with basic environmental precautions
But
*HIQA advice for environmental precautions has not been adopted by HSE

‘more cases linked to long-term residential settings in the last 2 weeks than at any point during weeks of Oct/Nov surge...more expected’
So
*nursing home outbreaks are seen as inevitable
*no prevention plan

[10 wks ago I gave environmental advice for prevention, no engagement]

‘avg close contacts is 1.3 in households & 1 outside’
So
*contacts outside households are low, R< 1 suppresses a pandemic
*current spread is ~within households~
But
*household spread is seen as inevitable with no health advice to stop it, even for tens of thousands self-isolating

‘expect new variants... they can stick longer & better to surfaces’
So
*variants are major risk, & risk increase in cases & vaccines effectiveness
But
*’sticking to surfaces’ is unscientific nonsense
*10 mths of intl scientific research is being ignored in HSE health advice

‘expect hospital numbers peaking at between 2,000 & 2,400’
So
*control was lost, with very serious impact on health services, education, people & economy
But
*no reflection on what works & what doesn’t
*no policy changes
*no prevention plans
*no exit strategies
*no new thinking

*credit to @mariaflan @rtenews for original media report