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I recently decided to dive into some of the advanced stats from the 2020 Pac-12 football season, and there were some interesting findings!
However, take these all with a grain of salt, as the sample size was super small.
This is especially true with ASU (70 point game).
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However, take these all with a grain of salt, as the sample size was super small.
This is especially true with ASU (70 point game).
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Let's start by comparing team talent (via the 247 team talent composite) to each team's margin (expected points added per play on offense minus expected points added per play on defense, weighted slightly towards offense).
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Even with a tiny sample, the saying that "stars matter" held true, as there is a (roughly) direct relationship between margin (higher on the graph is better) and team talent composite (farther right is better).
For reference, the Pac-12 logo is average for the conference.
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For reference, the Pac-12 logo is average for the conference.
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Things that stand out:
Teams that did less with more: Cal, Stanford
Teams that did more with less: ASU, UW, Utah
Teams that are quite similar, with high expectations next year: USC, Oregon
Team that (seemingly) made a good decision to fire their coach: Arizona
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Teams that did less with more: Cal, Stanford
Teams that did more with less: ASU, UW, Utah
Teams that are quite similar, with high expectations next year: USC, Oregon
Team that (seemingly) made a good decision to fire their coach: Arizona
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The next thing I plotted was Offensive EPA/Play vs Defensive EPA/Play.
The better the offense, the further right, the better the defense, the further down. The bottom right is where you want to be.
The Pac-12 logo is the Pac-12 average, the NCAA logo is the FBS average.
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The better the offense, the further right, the better the defense, the further down. The bottom right is where you want to be.
The Pac-12 logo is the Pac-12 average, the NCAA logo is the FBS average.
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Things that stand out:
WOW, ASU was totally skewed by that crazy performance vs. Arizona.
Speaking of that, boy oh boy was U of A atrocious.
Washington may be legit, and the future is bright with Jimmy Lake.
Stanford's identity seems to be shifting, the defense was BAD.
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WOW, ASU was totally skewed by that crazy performance vs. Arizona.
Speaking of that, boy oh boy was U of A atrocious.
Washington may be legit, and the future is bright with Jimmy Lake.
Stanford's identity seems to be shifting, the defense was BAD.
(6/)
Things that stand out (cont):
If Utah can find a QB, the defense is still elite.
Bill Musgrave & Chase Garbers have some work to do with the Cal offense.
Nick Rolovich needs to improve the offense if the defense still stinks at WSU.
Oregon wasn't dominant, can they be?
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If Utah can find a QB, the defense is still elite.
Bill Musgrave & Chase Garbers have some work to do with the Cal offense.
Nick Rolovich needs to improve the offense if the defense still stinks at WSU.
Oregon wasn't dominant, can they be?
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Next, I split up offensive EPA/play into run plays and pass plays.
Pass offense is on the x-axis, run offense on the y-axis. The top right is where you want to be.
Again, the Pac-12 logo is the Pac-12 average, the NCAA logo is the FBS average.
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Pass offense is on the x-axis, run offense on the y-axis. The top right is where you want to be.
Again, the Pac-12 logo is the Pac-12 average, the NCAA logo is the FBS average.
(8/)
Things that stand out:
ASU was the #1 rush offense in the country by EPA/play, helped by 50 rushes for 259 yards vs U of A.
Tyler Shough was scrutinized, but UO passing offense was very good.
USC had a top 25 pass offense and bottom 15 run offense, stop running the ball!
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ASU was the #1 rush offense in the country by EPA/play, helped by 50 rushes for 259 yards vs U of A.
Tyler Shough was scrutinized, but UO passing offense was very good.
USC had a top 25 pass offense and bottom 15 run offense, stop running the ball!
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Things that stand out (cont):
WSU was good running the ball, not good throwing.
Arizona was bad. That's all.
Cal wasn't much better. Musgrave has work to do.
UCLA & Stanford were similar, both offenses productive, especially vs each other (95 points).
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WSU was good running the ball, not good throwing.
Arizona was bad. That's all.
Cal wasn't much better. Musgrave has work to do.
UCLA & Stanford were similar, both offenses productive, especially vs each other (95 points).
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The final plot was defensive EPA/play split into run and pass plays. Again, passes on the x-axis, runs on the y-axis.
However, the best defenses have the lowest EPA/play, negative is better. Therefore, here you want to be in the bottom left.
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However, the best defenses have the lowest EPA/play, negative is better. Therefore, here you want to be in the bottom left.
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Things that stand out:
Oregon and Cal had defenses that were, quite simply, average.
No defense on the farm, Stanford's identity may be changing.
Utah's defense was great overall, applause to Whit.
Washington had a great pass defense, Jimmy Lake surely a reason why.
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Oregon and Cal had defenses that were, quite simply, average.
No defense on the farm, Stanford's identity may be changing.
Utah's defense was great overall, applause to Whit.
Washington had a great pass defense, Jimmy Lake surely a reason why.
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Things that stand out (cont):
WSU, OSU, and U of A bad vs run and pass, need to overcome talent deficiencies and couldn't this year.
USC and CU well rounded defenses.
ASU excelled vs run but bad vs pass, missed Danny Gonzales.
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WSU, OSU, and U of A bad vs run and pass, need to overcome talent deficiencies and couldn't this year.
USC and CU well rounded defenses.
ASU excelled vs run but bad vs pass, missed Danny Gonzales.
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Final thoughts:
Talent played a role in the shortened season. U of A, WSU, OSU, and Cal struggled on at least one side of the ball.
If USC can stay this efficient passing and improve running, they have potential.
Pac-12 offenses had more success running vs rest of FBS.
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Talent played a role in the shortened season. U of A, WSU, OSU, and Cal struggled on at least one side of the ball.
If USC can stay this efficient passing and improve running, they have potential.
Pac-12 offenses had more success running vs rest of FBS.
(14/)
Special thanks to @ConorMcQ5 for his help with this thread.
CC: @tracetravers3 @AGuyNamedNam @avinashkunnath @rob11hwang the best Cal writers. Thoughts? Go Bears!
PS: The Pac-12 still belongs in the national conversation!
(15/15)
CC: @tracetravers3 @AGuyNamedNam @avinashkunnath @rob11hwang the best Cal writers. Thoughts? Go Bears!
PS: The Pac-12 still belongs in the national conversation!
(15/15)
