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I'm very optimistic about US vaccine supply in the coming months. The bottom line is that the Trump administration left a lot of money on the table. It won't be hard for the Biden administration to find easy and effective ways to increase supply levels. Let me explain why. 1/9
Every person who is vaccinated creates spillover benefits to those around them in the form of a reduced chance of transmitting COVID19. These benefits are called positive consumption externalities and when take up is high enough they create herd immunity. 2/9
Economic theory tells us that when there are positive spillovers like this, the free market *cannot* reach the optimal level of vaccination. It calls for government intervention often in the form of subsidies and/or regulation to incentivize manufacturers and the public. 3/9
Vaccine manufacturers are pharmaceutical companies after all. We don't have to look very hard for evidence that their profit incentives do not always align with what's best for public health. 4/9 https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2016/07/06/pfizer-opioids-chicago-painkiller/
We have plenty of evidence that the Trump admin wasn't doing enough to boost vaccine production or take-up. For example, they inexplicably ordered a fraction of the doses that we needed to cover the US population even after the EUA was granted. 5/9 https://twitter.com/notdred/status/1336272030220554240?s=20
There is lots of room for a competent and empathetic Biden administration to negotiate with vaccine manufacturers and incentivize them to raise production. That could mean ordering more doses, paying higher prices, or legislating to incentivizes or compels higher supply. 6/9
Biden will invoke the DPA for producers of "raw materials" rather than Pfizer/Moderna themselves. That's a smart negotiating tactic - he is making it easier for them to produce vaccines rather than legally compelling them to increase production. 7/9 https://www.axios.com/biden-defense-production-vaccine-2b43c36d-46df-4152-b941-5864d34b2052.html
And that's before the Biden admin unleashes a whole other level of innovation in the vaccine supply chain like boosting the production of "low dead-space syringes" that literally squeeze out more doses from existing vaccine supply levels. 8/9 https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1350554397940588548?s=20
We have been averaging ~4k deaths a day and the vaccination program is off to a slow start. But on Jan 20 we will be set on a much better trajectory because the Biden administration is full of capable people whose mantra is "I'm from the government and I'm here to help". 9/9
The Trump admin left literally billions of dollars on the table by failing to prepare for the vaccine rollout. The Biden admin needs to pull out all the stops to scale this program up.
https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1350426959172562944?s=20
10/9
https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1350426959172562944?s=20
10/9
