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Given the discussions about relative significance of intelligence failures in context of the riot/insurrection, there *is* a scholarly literature on the nature of intelligence failure which also distinguishes them from policy or decision failures. See: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C47&q=%22intelligence+failures%22&btnG=
The problem with the current conversation about intelligence failure is that some people conceive of intelligence as a precursor to decision, which is *sometimes* the case when the threat is not known.
But when the threat is known both intelligence *and* decision actors/orgs are collecting & evaluating information simultaneously. To evaluate relative performance, you have to evaluate both sets of actors and their assessments (appreciations), looking first at the decision side
In short, ask the question "who knew what & when?", on a timeline. Then cross check to what our current understanding of what actually happened is. That's the only way to know if an intelligence failure had a material affect on the decision, or whether there was a failure to act
This is what I did in my evaluation of relative failures in the pre-9/11 policy context re terrorist threat from Al Qaeda. My conclusion there was that the threat was known for years before 9/11 but there was a failure to respond effectively. See: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02684527.2011.559140
The broader conceptual framework for explaining why it is necessary to evaluate intelligence performance relative to policy performance can be found here: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02684527.2016.1275139
In context of the riots/insurrection, I expect Betts' conclusions about surprise despite warning to be borne out, & that the primary failures will be on the response/act side of the dynamic (even if at the same time there may have been some deficiencies in intell performance too)
Betts' conclusions about surprise despite warning can be found here: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C47&q=betts+%22surprise+despite+warning%22&btnG=
